Encinitas Early Voting Returns Look Good For Lerchbacker But…

A late decision and a large personal loan to his campaign made Encinitas Council candidate Alan “Lerch” Lerchbacker look like a long shot candidate But a divided electorate, support from the surging Mayoral favorite Kristin Gaspar, and a mid-campaign endorsement change from the Republican Party of San Diego County might propel “Lerch” to victory.

Early voting, as of October 28, 2014, in Encinitas has a slight Republican edge according to The San Diego Group.  Republicans have returned 2329 ballots, Democrats have returned 2237 ballots, and DTS and others have returned just shy of 1500.  Normally, that would seem par for the course and not signify any advantage for “Lerch” but a few extraordinary things are happening in this campaign:

1- Over 70% of the returned ballots came from voters over the age of 54.  That’s pretty standard for mail-in results and those ballots tend to be influenced by party-endorsement mailers.  That would lead people to believe that the endorsed Democrat (Blakespear) and the endorsed Republican (Lerchbacker) are running neck and neck but older voters tend to be more conservative than their children and grandchildren.  Slight advantage to Lerchbacker.

2- More women than men are voting in this election (53% v 47%).  Normally that would give Blakespear a bump but Julie Graboi may be earning those votes too.  Nonetheless, I’ll give the slight advantage to Blakespear.

3- The party faithful however have some split loyalty in Encinitas.  Republican Bryan Ziegler and Democrat Julie Graboi are earning votes away from their respective party-endorsed candidates.  The division appears more pronounced among Democrats–slight advantage Lerchbacker.

4- Almost 1in 4 early voters is not affiliated with a political party–that could mean anything.  While the general assumption is that Encinitas voters lean left, those voters are generally sitting out this election.  Left-leaning voters don’t have a huge incentive in this election:  Brown will be Governor, nobody is running for US Senate, Darrel Issa will be re-elected to the House and (if they care), Rocky Chavez will be re-elected to the Assembly.  The non-affiliated electorate will probably be right-leaning.  Slight advantage for Lerchbacker.

5- Blakespear has much better name recognition than “Lerch”.  She grew up in Encinitas and moved back in 2008.  More importantly, she does business with Encinitas residents as an estate planning attorney with an office in Del Mar.  She has spent four years on the Traffic and Safety Commission and was the first candidate to declare.  She’s raised the most money.  Lerchbacker’s career is distinguished (retired Naval officer), was an applicant for the late Maggie Houlihan’s Council seat, and is a regular in the Swami’s lineup.  “Lerch” has done a great job with signs and mailers but Blakespear has a huge advantage with name recognition.

Right now, I’d guess that “Lerch” has a very slight edge in the 6000 early votes cast.  If I had to guess, he has 2500 and Blakespear has 2300.  If 4000 voters show up on Tuesday, expect that  Blakespear already has 1500 of those votes in the bag.  1000 of those votes will go to other candidates and another 1000 will be headed for the endorsed Republican.  “Lerch” is going to have win at least 300 of the remaining 500 votes.

Those 500 potential voters don’t live in Cardiff, Old Encinitas, or Leucadia.  They’re probably DTS, high-propensity poll  voters who live in and around the El Camino Real corridor and Olivenhein.  If “Lerch” can knock on all of their doors twice in the next four days, and highlight the differing opinions on Pacific View, he might pull off an upset.

Who knows?  Small town council campaigns don’t have polling and are generally a guessing game.  If “Lerch” had me advising him though, I’d focus on the “elusive 500” this weekend.