Let me start with this; I hope Duncan Hunter is exonerated of all suspicions and continues to serve in Congress.
The Democrats are betting that won’t happen and they aren’t planning to run a centrist. The Democrats are drawing a bold, bright line and running an Obama Administration official for the 50th Congressional District should Hunter resign. Their candidate is a symbol of identity politics with a singular message which appeals to progressive voters; Trump bad, Obama good.
I know what you are thinking — there is no way that a progressive, Obama Administration official can win in a District which voted for Trump by a 15 point margin over Clinton. I completely agree…unless…
….a special election is called in the 50th Congressional District. If Congressman Hunter chooses not to serve in the 5oth Congressional District, and a special election is called, Democrats will unify behind this candidate and here is how he gets elected:
1- The Hunter base may not be motivated to come to the polls in a special election. A Hunter has served this District since Reagan was inaugurated as the 40th President of the United States. His supporters may be demoralized.
2- Democratic voters unify behind a single candidate in a special election. The 50th may have voted for Trump but it’s Hunter Country. Hunter outperformed President Trump by +7 in the 2016 general election. Seven percent of the electorate voted FOR Hunter and someone other that the President. These are the voters who may not show up in a special election.
3- The Republican voters are balkanized. About a half dozen Republican mayors, a dozen Republican council members, a few current and former Republican State Senators, 3-5 current and former Assembly members, 2-3 termed out Republican County Supes, and a boat load of Republican school board members all may feel they have a shot in this District.
Imagine this scenario: A special election might get 150,000 votes cast. Democrats increase their vote totals from 45,000 (2014) to 65,000 (they got 103,000 in 2012). It’s not that hard when you consider that, in 2016, some 14,000 Hunter voters chose someone other than President Trump. The Democrat still loses, right? Now, imagine this: 25,000 Republican voters, barraged by all the R-on-R negative campaigning, just stay home. The Democrat earns 65,000 votes while a dozen Republican candidates split the remaining 60,000 voters. Game Over. No run-off election.
This is how a progressive Obama Administration official who believes that America is “the only civilization on earth ever to be founded on this defiant worldview: that our individual differences don’t outweigh our common humanity” and believes that he lived in an area which was an “occupied territory” which was “under siege by American-made helicopters and F-16s,” replaces Duncan Hunter as the Congressman from the 50th Congressional District.
I’ve had minor differences of opinion with Congressman Hunter and have occasionally expressed those differences of opinion publicly but make no mistake about it — Duncan D. Hunter is the best choice to represent the people of the 50th Congressional District. He has my full support.
I simply can’t imagine a scenario in which the people of the 50th Congressional District, who have overwhelmingly supported two men that commanded American soldiers and Marines in combat, elect a man who believes those two honorable men are war criminals.
Oh wait…I just did imagine that scenario and it ain’t pretty. Duncan D. Hunter for Congress: yesterday, today, and tomorrow.