Following Congressman Darrell Issa’s departure from the race last week (read all of that action here), the Cook Political Report has now moved California’s 48th District from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic,” while many Dem operatives are concerned that perennial candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar would be a liability in the November general election against a strong Republican.
From Politico…
“(Cook) notes the strongest Republican contender, San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond, is less polarizing than Issa, but ‘it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to maintain that moderate profile through the primary.’ But the report says the competitiveness of the race in November depends on which Democratic candidate — Ammar Campa-Najjar, Marni von Wilpert or Brandon Riker — emerges from the bitter primary. It notes that von Wilpert is the one ‘who’s seen by most Democratic Party operatives as the stronger general election candidate,’ though she has less cash than Campa-Najjar and Riker, who has loaned more than $700,000 to his campaign.”
Cook also notes that Campa-Najjar’s “three failed campaigns — during which he’s changed his positions on gun control and abortion” have been criticized by Democrats and “his flip-flopping could…hurt him in the general election.”
However, Inside Elections writes that “Issa’s surprise retirement doesn’t change the overall shape of the race, especially after…Desmond switched over from running in the 49th District.”
Erin Covey writes in Cook…
“Campa-Najjar is a familiar face to San Diego County voters — he mounted two unsuccessful bids for Congress in 2018 and 2020 and ran for mayor of Chula Vista in 2022. He’s also the partner of Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs and has picked up a slew of endorsements from her colleagues in the House.
“A GOP memo leaked to the Washington Examiner pointed to Campa-Najjar as one of a handful of Democratic candidates whom Republicans would prefer to run against in November.”