Last January 31, SD Rostra foresaw a Republican takeover chance in mid-county’s 39th State Senate District. That prediction looks pretty good in preliminary maps (see above) issued this week by the State Redistricting Commission’s staff. The area now served by Chris Kehoe would add Republican strongholds like Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, and Scripps Ranch. The maps also seem to show El Cajon, La Mesa and a chunk of Spring Valley going to SD 39 as well! Meanwhile a few strongly Democratic Midtown neighborhoods are removed. Oops!
This is reminiscent of the 39th District which elected Larry Stirling (R) in 1988, Jim Ellis (R) in 1984 and 1980 and Jack Schrade in 1968 and 1972. State Assemblywoman Toni Atkins (D) is the acknowledged Democrat front-runner in 2012, when Kehoe is term-limited … but suddenly this would become a very competitive seat for Republicans too. How would Toni Atkins play in the colorful Cajon Zone? You make the call.
Possible Republican candidates, and only speculation now: Former State Assemblymen George Plescia and Jay La Suer, and ex-San Diego Councilman Brian Maienschein.
…………………..Other San Diego county State Senate Seats
In remaining local districts, Sen. Joel Anderson looks to have a safer seat, with his 36th district moving northward to Escondido, Fallbrook and Ramona….. Mark Wyland’s SD 38 would become a North/South corridor, from Oceanside to Coronado! Martin Garrick’s Solana Beach base is in the middle of that GOP-leaning seat. He may run to succeed Senator Wyland in 2014. And if Juan Vargas chooses to stay in the State Senate, he would have a safely Democratic seat in SD 40.
You can see all the draft California Redistricting Commission staff maps at this link: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/meeting_handouts.html
Caveat: These maps are still preliminary … I’m writing these analyses on the fly … this is a starting point for what will be lots of discussion. So, please close cover before striking, hold all Bingo cards, and Leave the Reds in Cincinnati!
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Jim Sills is a San Diego political consultant. If you have questions about your future in San Diego and California elections, you can contact Jim at this e-mail address: YourElectionVictory@Hotmail.com
He has aided the campaigns of Rep. Darrell Issa, Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, Senators Joel Anderson and Tony Strickland, Representatives Devin Nunes and J.D. Hayworth, County Assessor & Recorder Greg Smith, among many others in California and beyond.
Comments 14
Does Joel still live in his district under these lines?
Good question, Jeff. The draft Senate maps are not as detailed as those for the state Assembly, but as I read them, YES, Sen. Joel Anderson’s East County home is safely within the “light Gold” colored district.
Hey Jim! Don’t forget that in addition to Schrade, Ellis, and Stirling winning the old 39th State Senate District, so did Democrat Lucy Killea in a December 1989 special election.
Hey Jim,
Any way we can get voter reg stats on city of sd communities, and CDPs, like lakeside, lake san marcos etc?
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Right now, we just have the Maps.
Shucks. Thought I could slip that one by on the outside corner, but the C-Dog took me deep to the Petco Porch. OK… it was a very close race … but Ms. Killea did edge out Carol Bentley in that memorable 1989 special, just as the C-Dog says.
Crotty and Sills are dating themselves. Was that not the infamous race in which the ROV inadvertently left Bentley’s party affiliation off the sample ballot, the same race that the Catholic Church considered (or enacted?) some kind of sanction against Killea? Those were the days.
Look who’s talking! When Themistocles defeated Pericles for Mayor of Athens, Barry Jantz personally led the celebratory Toga Party….. They still talk about that one at the Parthenon. 😉
You guys make me feel old. Do you remember the interesting Republican primary in that district right before the special? Hint: “Real …”
In the Assembly seat in 1988? Bentley vs. Gloria McColl, with Carol billing herself as “The Real Republican.”
You can go to the registrar and see voter reg by city of sd (like RB or PQ, and cdps (like Lakeside)
Here ya go…
http://www.sdcounty.ca.gov/voters/Eng/Eline.shtml
Major thanks to John Wainio of the San Diego Group for alerting SD Rostra to the availability of these maps. Thank you, John !
See update to the analysis of SD 39 and the prospects for the GOP winning the seat…
http://sdrostra.com/?p=16526