Why Would Filner Resign?, Polling, Labor Dynamics
It’s been a couple weeks since my last post so I thought I’d play some catch up.
#1 I don’t believe Bob Filner will resign unless he has to negotiate away his office to avoid prison time for the other financial scandals that are roiling him. So what that all the Democratic officials in town are calling for him to step down. Filner must know what we all know: they didn’t want him to run in the first place, never liked him, and see this as an opportunity to replace him with someone they like (or some are afraid they’ll lose the seat to a Republican).
#2 There are at least three real polls floating around taken in the last couple weeks. By real I mean not Survey USA. As part of my day job I’ve seen two. Here is what I can or will say: I’m not sure who should carry the Democrat banner. Nathan Fletcher starts ok but shrivels up after message testing. Toni Atkins, Todd Gloria and Christine Kehoe cannibalize each other if they run at once or even a couple run at once. Lori Saldana and Lorena Gonzalez are kind of wild cards that were only tossed in one poll. I’m going to toss a shocker in there: Marti Emerald. Lotta people know who she is.
#3 Dynamics in the Labor Council seem interesting. They are arguing over whether or not to stand with Filner. So far the ‘ayes’ have it. They are also in a bit of a struggle between Richard Barrera — who is getting kudos generally for being politically diligent even though I don’t see it in the Filner thing — and his predecessor Gonzalez (now in the Assembly) over endorsements IF Filner is recalled or resigns. I hear she was out front for Fletcher a couple weeks ago, basically saying it was a done deal. But as late as two days ago (2nd hand) it didn’t sound like that from Barrera at all. There is bound to be some tension between the two of course. But it’s worth noting.