Thanks to avid Rostra reader Evan McLaughlin for noting, in response to today’s earlier post, a different poll rebutting Steve Castaneda’s claim of a five-point marginal lead over Lorena Gonzalez in the 80th Assembly District.
In fact, the other stats indicate the Castaneda-touted poll is a mere 37 points off.
McLaughlin provided the link to a San Diego Politico post, “Real Questions Produce Real Answers: Polling Shows Lorena Gonzalez with 32-point Lead Over Opponent,” generated from a Gonzalez press release…
“Pro-jobs Democrat Lorena Gonzalez leads opponent Steve Castaneda by 32 points in polling conducted in the Assembly District 80 special election.
“When provided summaries of the two candidates’ biographies and asked which candidate they prefer, respondents of a survey conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, Inc. preferred Lorena over her opponent by a 49-17 margin.”
So, which poll is right?
You be the judge. Some political watchers today said they didn’t put much stock in the Castaneda numbers. Yet, another analyst told us, “Five points I can believe. But 32? Ya, no.”
Ya, no. We’ll remember that.
Any pollsters want to jump in on polling efficacy, post a comment or send us a guest post.
Comments 5
The poll released by our opponent basically showed that anyone who knows Lorena is voting for her, while he hangs his hat on being better known in a city where he held office for eight years (and lost the mayor’s race … failing to advance past the primary …. twice).
Our poll assumes that resources will actually be spent to educate voters on the candidates. Even if we assume BOTH candidates will have the funding needed to advertise themselves (big “if,” as Lorena raised 29 times more than our opponent), Lorena has better appeal, if all other things are equal (again, a very big “if”).
The simple fact is that neither poll provides enough info to gauge accuracy. Unless I’m missing a link, neither Cast or Gonz have provided the actual raw data, methodology, or even a full record of the questions asked. While not much is apparent from the Cast poll, the little bit outlined in the Gonz release tells me that their methodology provided subjects with so much info as to skew the results. To provide official bios to undecided voters, and claim that it is an accurate benchmark of an upcoming election, is to assume that this is the entirety of info that voters will have come election day. But we all know that campaigns may not get their whole positive messages out, and that negative messages will also affect outcomes.
This is not to say that the Cast poll isn’t skewed – just that I don’t have anything to go on in analyzing their polling methodology. The Gonz release gives just enough info for me to do just that.
“Lorena Gonzalez is a non-profit C-E-O…” LOL!
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Add’l reaction:
#AD80 Watch 3: FOOD FIGHT! The survey feud continues http://sdrostra.com/?p=32997
Who is Steve Castaneda and Lorena Gonzalez and what is a state assembly?
To the website. Why do you put challenging math questions as a requirement to make a posting?