Dave Brat, economics professor, neophyte, and “underfunded” candidate has done the unbelievable — he decidedly defeated House Majority Leader Eric Cantor for the Republican nomination in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. Brat ran a campaign that attracted heavy tea party support, criticizing Cantor for his votes for the debt ceiling increase and his support for comprehensive immigration reform (italicized and emboldened intentionally).
Some observations:
1- You gotta pick your battles. VA CD-7 is a deep red district. It’s had a Republican House member since 1971 and three conservative Democrats (we used to have those) serving from 1935-1971.
2- Talk about the conversation in voters’ heads. Immigration has been in the headlines these past few months as has cronyism. Brat blasted Cantor on both in the few weeks prior to the election.
3- Have a credible candidate. Brat is accomplished, educated, and respected. He was no Christine O’Donnell
4- Run a high-minded campaign. Brat’s motivation to run wasn’t personal. Brat said, “I’m not running against Eric Cantor but I’m running against folks who stay up there too long and turn from the District to represent folks up in DC.”
5- Seek prominent endorsements which speak to your constituents. Brat had difficulty securing “mainstream” endorsements, but national, conservative talk show hosts Mark Levin and Laura Ingraham supported him. That kind of media support doesn’t do much in CA-CD 51 but in Brat’s district, it meant a lot.
What’s that mean in San Diego?
It would be tough to run a tea party-type insurgency in Congressional Districts 51, 52, or 53. Likewise for Assembly Districts 78-80. San Diego City Council District 5 seems to be the only one which would support a hard-line conservative. Tea party supporters might understand that opportunities to move legislative bodies rightwards are going to come by challenging “safe” Republicans rather than Democrats.
I always want to see a conservative run in every race. Kirk Jorgensen’s and Fred Simon’s campaigns, while difficult in CD-52, proved that Carl DeMaio needs conservative support to defeat Scott Peters (I think that Jorgensen and Simon carried the majority of the Republican vote). That June showing highlights that DeMaio has to speak more deeply to the issues which concern traditional conservatives if he expects to win — that’s a victory in my book.
Conservative opportunities are going to come in red districts, though. Darrell Issa could have been challenged on his immigration reform plan and his questionable voting record. While Issa remains very popular in his District, he will retire sooner rather than later. THAT, in my opinion, is where the next opportunity lies for tea party conservatives. Neel Kashkari’s gubernatorial candidacy is nothing more than a PR campaign for him in a future race, in a safe Republican seat. But, as for the next real, local opportunity — Issa’s seat — Assemblyman Rocky Chavez is popular in the San Diego portion of the District and Diane Harkey will clearly be a contender if the opportunity presents itself in 2018.
San Diego tea party supporters might be drafting a plan for that 2018 race.