I’m told by someone close to the Fletcher campaign that his campaign will be up on broadcast TV tomorrow. Given that it is still a month before absentee voting begins, and he does not have Steve Francis funding, this begs a question: Why start burning money this early? Don’t you risk running out weeks before the election?
The answer is yes, if it were a standard media buy (which costs roughly a quarter million dollars). But that’s not the strategy.
The logic goes something like this: instead of spending $250,000 to make sure everyone actually sees the ad, just spend $100,000 and hope that the current media love-fest plays the ad as a story and racks up another $100,000 worth of earned media.
Interesting strategy. Very clever in a way. But there is still the question of why even spend $100,000 this early? My source says that they are concerned about continuing to hemorrhage support. The “game changer” announcement last week, and now the TV buy, are designed to draw enough attention and raise his name ID enough to prevent more of his supporters from bailing. Independent Expenditure dollars in Sacramento have already been yanked. He can’t afford to trail in a distant third or fourth place until the final month.
My prediction: Fletcher touts another poll sometime in the next two weeks, showing a bump in support; a bit of separation from Dumanis. The question is whether this early burn will even be remembered in a month, when everyone else is spending in much larger amounts.