Fletcher’s Early TV Burn

Owen Kellogg Owen Kellogg 10 Comments


I’m told by someone close to the Fletcher campaign that his campaign will be up on broadcast TV tomorrow. Given that it is still a month before absentee voting begins, and he does not have Steve Francis funding, this begs a question: Why start burning money this early? Don’t you risk running out weeks before the election?

The answer is yes, if it were a standard media buy (which costs roughly a quarter million dollars). But that’s not the strategy.

The logic goes something like this: instead of spending $250,000 to make sure everyone actually sees the ad, just spend $100,000 and hope that the current media love-fest plays the ad as a story and racks up another $100,000 worth of earned media.

Interesting strategy. Very clever in a way. But there is still the question of why even spend $100,000 this early? My source says that they are concerned about continuing to hemorrhage support. The “game changer” announcement last week, and now the TV buy, are designed to draw enough attention and raise his name ID enough to prevent more of his supporters from bailing. Independent Expenditure dollars in Sacramento have already been yanked. He can’t afford to trail in a distant third or fourth place until the final month.

My prediction: Fletcher touts another poll sometime in the next two weeks, showing a bump in support; a bit of separation from Dumanis. The question is whether this early burn will even be remembered in a month, when everyone else is spending in much larger amounts.


Comments 10

  1. Or a clever interpretation of some leaked info that furthers the “hemorrhage support” narrative that benefits Dumanis, DeMaio and Filner.

    I find the IE thing from Sac laughable, considering that groups in Sac will give to Dems 10 to 1 and toss republicans crumbs to keep them happy. Someone leaving the Republican party has zero affect on their bottom line or strategy for the future. I also highly doubt that the family values folks with cash to burn were putting up money on Nathans behalf either, their score card said it all. What groups are bailing? The Log Cabin Republicans who bailed on a technicality and praised him on the way out?

    I bet he will come out with a poll and I bet its accurate that he got a big bump. If Nathan’s biggest issue was name ID, I find it hard to believe that he is dropping in the polls when he has owned the media cycle for a week. Right now Nathan owns the narrative and I think he is going to feed it $100k to keep it going.

    I think there are more than a few folks in panic mode and are throwing out ideas, on the fly, to respond. Look no further than the party issuing two releases on the same day on the same subject.

  2. I am with Chevy Sam,

    The media hound Carl DeMaio has been largely out of the press for the last week and his handlers are probably getting antsy.

    The only people that seem to be panicking about this are Fletcher’s opponents. Why else would Democratic and Republican party leaders join in an unholy alliance to try and stave off a Fletcher insurgency.

    We can talk about whether independents show up at the polls and what not but the fact is that most Republican elected officials owe, at least in part, their elections to independent voters.

    The idea that Fletcher is hemorrhaging support when by and large most of the Republican Elected officials who supported him and most groups who supported him are still standing with him is simply not factual. People seem to be falling farther out of line from the mainstream and it’s sort of sad.

  3. Fletcher already has signs out, plus the ads, maybe he will get more name recognition and probably get the bump in the polls.

  4. not early at all. Absentees arrive in a month. Sample ballots 45 days out (so around April 20).

    Remember Tom S. is involved so we are going to see, as per Tom’s WINNING strategy, a heavy absentee push and a focus on reaching those voters. I am surprised they were not up last week.

    Fair disclosure, Support and endorsed Carl.

  5. Oh, I need to explain, I thought the signs were annoying, but I tried to be objective in the earlier analysis.

  6. Mr. Kellogg’s post weaves a desperate attempt to chill media interest in Fletcher by insinuating they are a soft touch and by stirring up a rumor that Fletcher is scrambling now when its obvious his opponents are. But Erik is right — it is not too early to get on the air with some introductory spots.

  7. Ms Right – I hope the good citizens of Rancho Bernardo who complained about the Fletcher signs will share their concern regarding the Steve Danon signs, that are posted next to the Fletcher signs. Some have said, like the TV ad buy that these signs are an act of desperation. Do you think that is true for Danon too?

  8. Hi Chevy Sam, No, I don’t think Danon is desperate – I wonder if they both hired the same vendor/people to put up signs though.

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