Prop 50 is going to win handily, which most political operatives have known for weeks.
Moreso, it was always going to win handily.
The reason: Math.
Because politics is always about math. Always was, always will be.
Here’s the voter makeup in California…
10,376,887 Democrats (44.93%)
5,824,749 Republicans (25.22%)
5,219,152 Decline-to-State (22.60%)
1,672,486 Other parties (7.24%)
Let’s start with a scenario assuming a 45 percent voter turnout across parties, which is within reason based on past statewide special elections.
But, instead, let’s refine that scenario to benefit Republicans. In other words, let’s assume Republicans turn out to vote at a rate higher than their registration numbers and Democrats lower than their registration. Let’s say 47 percent of all Republicans end up voting while only 43 percent of Democrats do (instead of 45 percent in each case).
Such a huge difference is highly unlikely, especially in an election of interest and partisan consequence, but let’s just do it for cause and effect.
Lastly, again to benefit a Republican scenario, let’s say that 100 percent of the GOP voters cast a ballot against Prop 50. Let’s also say that only 90 percent of Democrats vote in favor of it, with ten percent rejecting it.
Do I need to say that both are highly unlikely? But heck, let’s run it anyway. Here are the resulting votes, for now just tallying registered Democrats and Republicans:
Yes on Prop 50 – 4,015,855
No on Prop 50 – 3,183,838
The margin is 832,017.
That leaves the decline-to-state and minor party folks listed earlier, making up a combined 29.84 percent of all voters. Let’s say 45 percent of them vote, about 3,101,237 voters.
To make up that 832,017 vote difference, for Prop 50 to then lose it would take 63.42 percent of those non-partisan and minor party voters to reject the measure, with only 36.58 voting yes on it.
That’s not gonna happen. In any election pretty much anytime.
Yeah, I can already hear the complaints. My responses:
- Many will say that decline-to-state and minor party voters won’t turn out anywhere near 45 percent of their registration numbers, as they don’t have as much of an interest in the outcome. Ok, fine. If fewer of them vote, a higher percentage of those voting are required to make up the No on 50 gap. It does nothing to change the outcome.
- Others will claim that a higher percentage of Democrats will vote no than the “mere” 10 percent in my scenario. I simply don’t see it. In what ads? The entire election has been about Dems telling Dems to vote yes and Reps telling Reps to vote no. With a roughly 45 to 25 percent registration margin, it’s laughable to expect anything other than a similar outcome.
- But, but, but… Barry, turnout will be higher (or lower) than 45 percent. Fine. Ratios stay the same in any reasonable analysis.
- Lastly, some will say my turnout scenarios are wrong, that Republican turnout will far exceed GOP registration. Whatever. Turnout only impacts outcomes in close elections, not in blowouts.
Just do the math.
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Posted 740 p.m., election night.