San Diego-based Gina Loudon, a conservative talk show host, asked this yesterday via Facebook:
What votes would it take for the GOP to beat Hillary? Why?
A. Independent/ moderates
B. Women & minority vote
C. Youth vote
D. Motivate conservatives & libertarians
This is a thoughtful question. My answer is simple; “E– Democrats”. Let me explain: I’m not interested in a Republican winning the White House as much as I’m interested in restoring the principles of a free society in these United States. That won’t happen with a divided electorate.
When I said, “Democrats”, you’d have thought I urinated in the Holy Water– that is where I think partisan activists are blowing it. Keep in mind that most partisan voters are not activists. They don’t care about the party platform that much, they aren’t ideologically rigid, and they want to get behind a vision which makes America free and prosperous. Some Democratic voters believe in the Second Amendment, secure borders, and the sanctity of human life. Some Republican voters are pro-choice, accepting of gay marriage, and believe in fanatical protection of civil liberties. Engaging those partisan voters and selling the vision is how Governor Jerry Brown and Mayor Kevin Faulconer got elected.
I’ve only seen two influential Presidents in my lifetime and both won by bucking their Party’s Establishment: Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. LBJ didn’t stand for a re-election, Nixon was impeached (and didn’t win a majority of the popular vote), Carter was a one-term President, Geo. HW Bush lost his re-election, Clinton didn’t win a majority of the popular vote and neither did Geo. W Bush.
Reagan’s Presidency was “transformational”. It was a coalition which included “Reagan Democrats” who thought their own party was pandering to special interests. Reagan’s economic policies released the power of the market economy, “rising the tide” for all boats. His Presidency was so transformational that it ensured a win for the “establishment” republican, VP Geo HW Bush, set up the “Republican Revolution” in the 1994, mid-term Congressional elections, and paved the way for George W. Bush’s victory. Many “Reagan Democrats” are registered Republicans today because of the way Reagan could articulate conservative principles and bring Americans together around them.
Obama’s Presidency may be transformational (I hope not) but he followed the “Reagan Way” in his 2008 campaign. I remember his call for “Obamacans” (Republicans who endorse or vote for him) and they responded in 2008. National Review columnists Chris Buckley and Jeffrey Hart, Bush’s Secretary of State Colin Powell, Bush’s Secretary of the Treasury Paul O’Neill, Bush’s SEC Chairman William Donaldson, Reagan’s Solicitor General Charles Fried, Bush’s Press Secretary Scott McClellan, and California Republican Gubernatorial candidate Nell Kashkari were some of the noteworthy “Obamacans” in 2008.
Both Reagan and Obama tapped into general discontent in their 1980 and 2008 elections and positioned themselves as “different” from their party–that resonated with voters of the opposing party. Neither Reagan nor Obama hid who they were. Reagan convinced some members of the mostly liberal party that his libertarianish ideology was good for the country. Obama convinced some members of the mostly conservative party that his collectivist ideology was good for the country. Note that I said some voters in the opposition party but winning “some” is all that is needed for a mandate.
The lesson I’ve learned from this is that candidates need to engage ALL voters but stick to their principles. There are some Democratic voters how have lost trust in their party’s vision on economic issues, cultural issues, and national security. Those disenfranchised Democrats might take a chance on a Republican who appears to transcend party lines and has a vision for all Americans, regardless of political party. If that happens, and our pro-freedom policies are successful, it will have a decades-long effect on the electorate.
It’s not going to be enough to squeak out a win against the Democratic nominee to restore these United States to the principles of of a free society; we need a mandate. To earn that mandate, our nominee has to sell our vision to some Democratic voters. THAT is how we restore America in 2016.