Study: Majority of Votes Cast in SD Mayoral Election Will be Absentee Voters

Vince Vasquez Vince Vasquez


For The First Time, Absentee Voters Will Dominate San Diego City Mayoral Election

SAN DIEGO – In the past three San Diego mayoral elections, the majority of votes in the general election were cast on Election Day. However, a new analysis by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) projects a historic change this year, as mailed ballots will, for the first time, comprise the majority of votes cast in the race. Using data from the Registrar of Voters office and GIS mapping software, NUSIPR evaluated a number of recent voter trends that will have an impact in Tuesday’s contest.

Overall, NUSIPR found that:

  • The majority of votes in the San Diego City mayoral election will come from absentee voters.
  • Nearly half (47.1%) of all San Diego City voters are “permanent vote-by-mail” voters, an increase of 172% since the 2005 mayoral election.
  • Fewer polling booth “Election Day voters” will be found concentrated in neighborhoods South of Interstate 8, challenging traditional Get-Out-The-Vote operations.

For more information, the Election Day report can be found here.

About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a non-partisan, non-profit organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy, and public opinion research so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region’s residents.

NUSIPR publishes regular independent research and analysis for the public on a range of topics, including unemployment, business growth, and the San Diego housing market. The Institute also works collaboratively with clients to develop high quality research products that are tailored to their policy needs.