Report: SD Council District 4 Special Election Is A “Wide Open Contest”

Vince Vasquez Vince Vasquez

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Changing Demographics Increase Competition, Voter Choice

SAN DIEGO – Though City Council District 4 has been represented by an African American Councilmember for nearly half a century, new demographic trends suggest the next elected representative is equally likely to be Latino, Asian, or another ethnicity. That is the major finding of a new report published by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR).

Earlier this year, the San Diego City Council approved a March 26special election to fill the recent vacancy in the 4th Council District. Using GIS software and data from the San Diego County Registrar of Voters and the United States Census Bureau, NUSIPR conducted a demographic and political analysis of the area. As the Friday filing deadline now approaches for candidates running in the District 4 special election, NUSIPR has released its findings.

Overall, we found that in District 4:

  • The African American population is shrinking. Over the past twenty years, the African American population, which has dominated District elections, has declined 36%.
  • Ethnic diversity is increasing. Due to population growth, Asians and Latinos now outnumber African Americans and Caucasians. Voter registration of Asians & Latinos has also significantly increased in recent years.
  • Voter turnout will be low, and votes will be concentrated geographically. District 4 historically has one of the lowest voting rates in San Diego. Still, Oak Park, Ridgeview-Webster & Paradise Hills are projected to turn out to vote in relatively high numbers.

The complete copy of the report can be found at the NUSIPR website, www.nusinstitute.org/assets/resources/pageResources/NUSIPR_District4_Special_Election_Brief.pdf

About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

Based in San Diego, the National University System Institute for Policy Research, (NUSIPR) is a non-partisan organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic, policy, and public opinion research so as to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region’s citizens.

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