Peter Burfeind wrote an election post-mortem on The Federalist . I encourage you to read it. He laid out “four new truths” about elections and the American electorate.
1- Donald Trump has jumped the shark. (but he is here to stay)
I agree with his analysis and share his disappointment in President Trump. Picking a fight with my Governor, after a stunning red wave hit Florida is stupid. Trump has turned off “reliable Republican voters” because we think he is making a 2024 run all about him and not his movement. You will see more and more GOP leaders criticize, reject, and ignore President Trump but he ain’t going away. If Trump doesn’t win the 2024 GOP nomination, I expect him to run as an independent, torpedoing any chance for a Republican to take the White House. Trump has a loyal base of about 10% of this country’s voters and they won’t vote for anybody but Trump. This created a Prisoner’s Dilemma for the rest of us. Like WOPR said to Professor Falken, “the only winning move is not to play.”
2- Democrat is shorthand for “I gotta get mine”.
There is a transactional relationship with younger voters and The Democratic Party. The Dems bought a lot of votes with a promise they knew they couldn’t keep but they will pull a stunt like this again. Republicans are going to have to do a better job explaining TANSTAAFL to voters with little or no education about the long-term effects of “free stuff”. GenZ doesn’t really watch Seinfeld so Republicans are going to have to find a way to communicate this to them.
3- The GOP must adapt to snowflake America
I love Kari Lake but a large bloc of voters think she is a “meanie”– they see Hobbs as a “noble victim” who couldn’t run a campaign because Lake would dominate the conversation. The same with Biden in 2020. I have no idea how to address this because, while candidate Mehmet Oz was flawed, he handled Senator-Elect Fetterman’s (now permanent) disability perfectly by not piling on. Democratic operatives did some pretty good mind-bending by suggesting that electing a Senator with cognitive dissociation assigns representation to disabled Americans– it worked. Most of Pennsylvania’s newspapers called the Senatorial debate for Fetterman because of his “courage” rather the substance of the ideas and policies being debated. I have no ideas about how to run against a heroic victim so your comments are solicited
4- GOP must adapt to how elections are run
I said this 6 years ago when AB1291 was passed. Like it or not, the State Legislatures set the election rules and California’s legislature passed ballot harvesting. You can cry “unfair” forever or understand that the elections are won between Labor Day and Columbus Day– the election is over by Halloween. I think that Florida’s election rules are fair but my State Legislature is much different from my old one (yours). You are stuck with ballot harvesting and, if California Republicans learn how play the game, they can start winning back seats and maybe get some voter integrity laws passed in the future.
If you are reading this from San Diego, talk to Jordan Marks, Jim Desmond, Kristi-Bruce Lane- Dan McAllister, John McCann, Melanie Burkholder and Pham Anderson. They have figured how to win as Republicans.
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Brian Brady is a former San Diegan, living in Florida since 2020. He was a San Diego County tea party activist, founding member of the San Diego County Republican Liberty Caucus, and Executive Committee Member of the Republican Party of San Diego County. He is an active member in the Pinellas County (FL) Republican Liberty Caucus and, as of today, Thor’s Assistant appointed him Bureau Chief to the Florida desk of San Diego Rostra.