Trump and the California GOP

Elliot Schroeder Elliot Schroeder 19 Comments

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I’d be lying if I wasn’t happy seeing the end of Clintonism.  As Trump’s victory rolled in, his strategy became apparent. Energize the rust belt filled with blue collar workers who have been abandoned by the Democrats in both social policies and, with Clinton, economic ones.  Trump recognized that the Blue Collar Reagan Democrats, with its wide presence in several states, still exists and is the true swing vote. But California isn’t in the rust belt.  With 61% voting for Clinton, that is an alarm.  California has a large immigrant population. Its economy is built on high tech, high end agriculture, and entertainment – all export products.  Trump  never had a chance in California so it’s makes sense not to cater to it. But for us Republicans behind the blue curtain we have less to stand on. Socially our policies never gave us a majority. Now that the GOP has shifted economically, that is gone too.  Once we are done celebrating the nation’s victory, we need to get together and think of our brand for California because the national GOP one won’t sell here.

Elliot Schroeder is a member-elect for the 77AD Republican Central Committee. Learn more about him at vote4elliot.org

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Comments 19

  1. This is important but, equally as important, is doing three things:

    1- identifying every Republican voter at the precinct level ans engaging them throughout the cycle rather than at the end of the election cycle.
    2- identifying Republican-leaning independents at the precinct level and asking them to vote for our candidates.
    3- adding more Republican voters at the precinct level

  2. True. But we need to know what they want. The Democrats had a huge ground game this time that amounted to GOTV but had nothing for the people to vote for (in the rust belt at least). So there was an enthusiasm gap and “first woman president” wasn’t enough to overcome economic issues.

  3. I think Republicans would be making a mistake if they view their Presidential victory as a victory on the issues. In my humble opinion, Tuesday’s result was due to the public’s total lack of trust in and fatigue with Hillary Clinton. As proof, I will point out that, even though our population has grown, President-Elect Trump received no more votes than Mitt Romney and no more votes that John McCain. The difference was that Mrs. Clinton received 9 million less votes than President Obama received in 2008 and 5 million less than he received in 2012. These voters weren’t endorsing the issues spoken by our President-Elect; they simply couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Mrs. Clinton.

  4. I was dead wrong about Trump. The man said he would run the table, change the electoral map, and help win majorities in the Senate and House. He did

    I think he is going to govern a lot differently than a movement conservative might. I also think we are going to see a much different man as President than we saw as candidate. If he’s successful, I think we will see a lot of enthusiasm at the precinct level.

    Ramping up proactive precinct operations engages our local party volunteers with existing and potential Republican voters. If there is anything to be learned from President-Elect Trump, it is that Republicans should listen to Republican voters. Maybe we should pursue that as well

  5. You’re dead wrong Hypocrisy. I laughed at all the smug establishment Republicans and Democrats trying to spin this historic victory as Hillary being an unpopular candidate.

    This was about the ISSUES. As Michael Moore says, this was a giant middle finger by the middle class working man to the elites who sacrificed the jobs of the working man on the altar of NAFTA and globalism. https://www.indy100.com/article/michael-moore-donald-trump-president-predicted-7383441. I don’t like Moore but I respect the fact that he gets it.

    Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio are the “Rust Belt” states because 5 million manufacturing jobs were stolen by Canada and Mexico under the cynical rationale of expanding trade. It’s about jobs, jobs, jobs.

    Woody works for a company who does manufacturing in the area around TJ in Mexico. 10 years ago, it was a 100 person manufacturing operation. Today it is a 1,200 person manufacturing operation.

    Jobs for Americans. Trump says cut all the politically correct regulations and replace Obamacare that are killing small businesses and the jobs for Americans. Reduce corporate taxes and let American companies repatriate the trillions that they have stashed overseas. The jobs WILL come back.

  6. Daniel,

    The numbers say that Mitt Romney and John McCain received as many votes as Donald Trump did. There was no groundswell of additional votes for our President-Elect. The difference was that millions who voted for President Obama simply stayed home because they couldn’t vote for Secretary Clinton.

    If you don’t like fact-driven analysis and you prefer something more instinctual and from the gut, ask yourself what the result would have been had the Democratic nominee been Joe Biden. The issues would have been the same, but I would guess that even you would agree that the results would have been much different.

  7. Hypocrisy: Denial is not a river in Egypt. Could have, would have, should have makes NO difference. The voters DID NOT want a 3rd Obama term. That’s what Hillary would have given them. The working class Americans whose lives that you leftists devastated, have spoken. They took back power.

    Spin it any way you want. Trump won. This is the second American revolution. The shot heard around the world. Trump is already scaring Canada and Mexico and he hasn’t been sworn in yet. https://www.yahoo.com/news/canada-pm-trudeau-says-ready-renegotiate-nafta-trump-165713892.html. https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2016/Nov-10/380652-mexico-says-ready-to-modernize-nafta-with-trump.ashx. A strong, determined leader like Trump is already making a difference.

    Remember what happened when Japan was threatened with tariffs on Japanese cars. This is what happens when you negotiate from strength. The Japanese immediately built auto factories in the US providing tens of thousands of good paying manufacturing jobs for Americans. The manufacturing jobs WILL come back.

  8. Voters tend to be uncomfortable with one party rule of all branches. Republicans will have this for the first two years. However, there are Republican seats coming up for election in 2018 in Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado. Nevada and Colorado were HRC states, and Arizona was within a few points.

    Those Senators are vulnerable in a mid term where the electorate wants to restore checks and balances. With a wildcard like Trump, the impulse to strengthen checks through divided government will be strong in my opinion.

    Those three Senators will not rubber stamp and align closely with Trump or the GOP. Their best shot is to run as independent mavericks who are already providing enough of check on Trump by breaking with the GOP on a few key high profile votes. Look for Senate Dems to work these three hard with both carrots and sticks to peel them off on critical votes, maybe even on a Supreme Court nominee if Trump gets aggressive in his choice.

  9. Correction:

    The 2018 Senate seat in play is Utah, not Colorado.

    Utah went for Trump with 47% voting for Trump–the weakest level of support among all the states Trump won.

  10. Daniel,

    I am not in denial about anything. I absolutely accept the results of the election because I believe in our system of Democracy and I believe in our country. I also hope that you are correct about the creation of great new jobs. I will even go one step further and tell you that I hope that Donald Trump becomes the greatest President we have ever had because, starting January 20, he is MY/OUR President.

  11. Hypocrisy,

    You’re right nationally. But that doesn’t matter. Trump got more votes in the rust belt – I checked PA, WI, MI. He lost CA bya much larger amount. Romney had 4.8M, Trump got 2.9M a huge drop that would make your case but also doesn’t matter. He would have lost California even if he got 4M votes. As my article states, his strategy was to win in the rust belt and lose (and lose big) in the states that he would lose anyways because of the electoral college.

  12. In Utah, Orrin Hatch plans on retiring…unless he’s in the middle of tax reform. he has been there 40 years and enjoys a 70% approval rating. If he retires, Jason Chaffetz will win by 10-15 points over any Democrat.

    In Arizona, Jeff Flake has certainly had problem with his right flank and only McCain had a lower approval . McCain won by 12 points.

    Neither Senator is up for reelection in Colorado.

    There are 5 Democrats up for reelection in maroon states; four of them voted for Obamacare. Republicans will hang that sign around all four of their necks.

    This is at least 4 year run for a Republican Congress.

  13. Brian is correct. President-Elect Trump should have a Republican-Majority House and Senate for his entire first term, so no excuses – America needs to be great again by the end of that term.

    As to why the election went the way it did, Ellliot is correct that Trump received more rust belt votes that Romney did, but not by much. The increase was mostly less than 1% of the total vote and never more than 2.5%. The fact remains that Mitt Romney was not and Donald Trump will be the 45th President because Romney ran against Obama and Trump ran against Clinton. There was no wave of “angry change voters” pining for Donald Trump. He won less electoral votes than Obama did (either time) and he didn’t even win the popular vote. That being said he is our President and we should all be rooting for his success.

  14. I find it odd but somewhat encouraging that many right wingers are now embracing tariffs and denouncing former trade agreements. This is a 180 degree shift. Many of you in the past have said that tariffs caused the Great Depression.

  15. There is a serious chance that the GOP establishment misread the mandate.

    A majority of Trump voters surveyed in exit polls indicated he did not have the temperament to be President. They were not voting him in as an affirmative act on policy. They were voting him in to disrupt and break the machine. Voters saw the lack of support from the GOP establishment, and it didn’t harm Trump, because the GOP establishment is part of the machine they want to smash.

    These voters have no loyalty to either party or platform. If the race had been an establishment Republican like Rubio against a disruptive Bernie Sanders, they would have chosen Sanders. No doubt. Notice that Sanders won the rust belt primaries.

    The only way to earn loyalty from the critical rust belt voters is improve NOT the economy writ large, but THEIR personal economies: their income, their promotion opportunities, their savings account balance, their college savings fund, their food and energy cost, their job security and quality of life.

    If you do as Mike Pence suggests and spend political capital on rolling back LGBT rights, or recasting the Supreme Court, or changing the tax code in ways that doesn’t materially affect the union hardhat 1040EZ, or anything else that doesn’t fix the plumbing in Flint, it will be a very very short honeymoon.

  16. “If you do as Mike Pence suggests and spend political capital on rolling back LGBT rights”

    I don’t recall Pence saying that in this campaign.

    “, or recasting the Supreme Court”

    I think replacing Scalia with an originalist is more accurately described as “restoring”

    “, or changing the tax code in ways that doesn’t materially affect the union hardhat 1040EZ, or anything else that doesn’t fix the plumbing in Flint, it will be a very very short honeymoon.”

    We agree on that. Lowering tax rates across the board and simplifying the tax code is the House Republicans goal. The goal is to eliminate the 1040 and make the 1040 EZ more accessible for everyone

  17. Question: What will the impact of early Trump endorsements by Duncan Hunter and Darrel Issa be on San Diego?

  18. annon: From what I saw in the Presidential race, Hunter did not get much love from Trump. At one point, when Hunter wanted to meet with Trump, he turned down a meeting. As an early supporter though, I assume he’ll get something thrown his way.

    Issa, on the other hand, is head of an important committee and will come up smelling like roses…if he survives the provisional ballots. The selection of Reince Priebus for Chief of Staff, a pragmatic choice, will help Issa. It will also help Trump with the RINO’s in the Senate and House to get his agenda passed. As head of the RNC, Reince knows how to work them.

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