I don’t not know if the 2024 presidential election itself will be the great historical earthquake that many are predicting, but the election is coinciding with the denouement of certain undercurrents that have long defined America’s political environment. In other words, we have reached the end of an epoch.
That epoch, making up much of the past 80 years, has been marked by at least three forces: the ascendancy of the Boomers, the realignment of the two political parties, and the Cold War. These forces have not been unique to America, but have been particularly salient here. Each of these forces, after a long half-life, has finally played out.
American society, and maybe much of the Western world, seems primed to finally turn the corner—from the 20th to the 21st century; from the Boomers to Gen TBD; from the post-WWII, post-Cold War world order to a new one, from the traditional American worldview to the secular, multicultural, internationalist alternative—but can’t quite seem to commit. Perhaps it’s because the full implications of such a turning are too dire to accept.
There are a few events that, in retrospect, clearly mark a seismic, societal shift that echo through the ages. The Protestant Reformation, for instance (although that was more a process than an event). I think for post-war America the event that had and continues to have the most consequential effect was the Kennedy assassination.
The eternal flame was barely lit and the final note of Taps was still swirling through the ether when the Counterculture started its slow ascendancy over American life. This coincided with the youth culture that came to dictate tastes, fashions, preferences and morality and continues to do so. I think for many people, especially the young, the illusion of certainty and stability that characterized post-WWII America ended on the day JFK was shot, and the delusion with the status quo started.
In many ways, America is still a 21-year-old Boomer stuck in 1960-something.
Clearly the domination of the Boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) is coming to an end. But if the politics of the last few decades have looked like internal squabbles between the Boomers (or Boomer adjacent like McCain, Biden, Pelosi, and McConnell), I think that the future of politics will be marked by generational confrontation between the old (Late Boomers, Gen Xers) and the young (Millennials, Gen Z, and whatever comes next).
Looking back, it strikes me that my life growing up in the 1970s and ‘80s was much more like my father’s experience growing up in the 1940s and ‘50s than it is to the experience of people born after 2000 or so. In terms of life experience, attitudes, and behaviors, I think the Boomers and the Gen Xers have already merged into a single entity. Further, younger Boomer and older Gen Xers are just trying to get across the finish line to retirement (and the Social Security and Medicare due them) and the dream of living out their lives in relative comfort before the whole thing falls apart (meaning not just those two respective social programs, but the country itself).
At the same time, young people in their 20s and 30s are increasingly resentful of not only the power, wealth, and privilege—but the very permanence—of their elders. And it is true, that America’s seniors have taken on some of the characteristics of a leisure class: large homes (at least larger than they need), piles of disposable wealth, vast amounts of free time, and a preoccupation with the arts, charity, and civic involvement.
Meanwhile, the kids can’t afford to buy a home, are paying exorbitant rents, and are paying off student debts for what are often un-remunerative degrees. If that weren’t bad enough, they also face the prospect of flattening economic growth and the disappointment that comes with being sold a false bill of goods about careers, sex, marriage, child-rearing, and the unrealistic expectations that come with being born into a once great nation in decline generally.
There is also an often ignored question hanging over the country in regards to its seasoned citizens: What happens when they’re gone? Self-centered and misguided as they were, the Boomers were perhaps the most educated, creative, ambitious and competent generation that has ever existed. Since the 1980s they have filled the highest most demanding jobs in every industry and sector. They make up the most senior executives and technicians in every company and government department. Their exit from productive life (and life period) will represent a massive brain drain the likes of which this country has never seen.
In addition to the looming generational conflict, we are witnessing the culmination of the realignment of the two major political parties that started after the signing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Upon signing that bill, LBJ said (probably apocryphally) that the Democratic party had “lost the South for a generation.” Whether true or not, there is no doubt that the political landscape has changed dramatically in the past 60 years, with the parties basically flipping places.
Although it may not be dominated by the South, the Republican party has definitely taken on a Southern flavor. This was evident in the political evolution of politicians such as Senator Strom Thurmond (South Carolina) and Texas Gov. John Connally (an acolyte of Johnson’s, who, incidentally, was riding with Kennedy on that fateful day in Dallas and who was also shot). We see this today in the self-imposed relocation of many right-leaning Americans from states such as California and New York to Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and other states of the former Confederacy. To the extent that states’ rights—a foundation of Democratic ideology until the New Deal—are still a thing, it is the Republicans who argue for limited central government and stronger protections for state prerogatives.
Since the election of Donald Trump, many other commentators (Teixeira, Kotkin) have noted the shift of working-class voters, another former bedrock of the Democratic party, from the Democratic fold into the ranks of Republicans. Blue collar workers and others without certificates and degrees now see their interests aligned with the GOP. Also since the election of Donald Trump, we have seen a skepticism of military intervention abroad and the national security state at home emerge on the political right.
In contrast, the Democratic party has become synonymous with an unlimited central government. To Democrats, there is no issue too small, no activity too insignificant, to warrant federal involvement (school bathrooms?). Its base is now the over “educated,” the credentialed, and the affluent. Unbelievably, in 2020, Wall Street interests donated five times more money to Joe Biden than to Trump ($50 plus million versus $10), the leader of the party of Business. The same was true for Hillary ($88 million to $20). And it is now the supposedly peace-loving, war-averse Democrats who cannot get enough of war and are constantly singing the praises of the Department of Defense and the CIA.
Again, as a child of the 1970s, nothing is more remarkable to me than the transformation of the liberals from critics of U.S. wars abroad, and skeptics of U.S., intervention generally, to warmongers of the first order.
Which leads me to my third and final observation. It is remarkable how the dynamics of the Cold War continue to play out 30 years after that conflict ended. It is not uncommon to hear Democrats invoke the same kinds of dire predictions in regard to Ukraine that Hawks did during the Vietnam War. Just consider the comments of Sen. Chris Murphy (CT) from February of this year:
“I just spent five days talking to world leaders and allies in the region who repeatedly warned that Putin will likely not stop at Ukraine. If we allow Putin to succeed in making Kyiv a Russian city, a NATO country could be next, and it won’t be just thousands of Ukrainian lives at risk – it will be millions of Americans.”
This is the Domino Theory redux. For those of you who may have forgotten (or don’t know) that theory was used to argue that if America didn’t stop the commies in Asia they’d be landing on American beaches next. It led to tens of thousands of American dead in Korea and Vietnam.
Similarly, Democrats continue to draw on the lessons of WWII to justify U.S. interventions to their liking. From the withdrawal from Vietnam through Kosovo, Republicans used to complain that Democrats saw every military action through the lens of Vietnam. Now, incredibly, the Democrats treat every military conflict as the Nazis were about to roll across Europe. Thus, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries can, with a straight face, argue that the choice facing legislators in regard to Ukraine funding is a Churchill or Chamberlain moment (Neville Chamberlian being the British prime minister who is famous for appeasing Hitler and declaring “peace in our time” one year before Hitler invaded Poland).
This is not to argue against the merits of Korea or Vietnam or any other of the many conflicts of the Cold War but to make the point the Democrats now employ the very arguments they used to laugh at in order to advance the wars they favor. That many Americans are convinced by these ridiculous comparisons shows just how stuck in the Cold War mentality we remain.
The difference between WWII and now is that in the 1940s America had a balanced budget and a minimal welfare state. In addition, our aid to Britain was a loan, not charity (as is the case in Ukraine). There’s a good chance that future generations of Americans will look back on support of Ukraine (and Israel, and Taiwan, and…) not as a Churchillian moment (the evocation of which I find slightly amusing, as Obama removed Churchill’s bust from the Oval Office) but the height of folly.
So we now live in this topsy-turvy world where the former peaceniks argue for ever greater intervention abroad while the Defense hawks call for restraint. And many in both camps continue to cling to an outdated notion of America as the leader of the Free World that demands a “pay any price, bear any burden” commitment to defeating Russia (and any other members of the “Axis of Evil”) even as the country becomes increasingly unwilling and unable (considering recruiting woes and high-profile failures such as those concerning the Navy’s fleet of littoral ships and the USS Boxer) to do so. America may very soon come to face a moment when, like the British after WWII, it realizes it no longer has the ability to play the historic role it has fashioned for itself.
And believe it or not, there may be far greater threats to the safety of Americans than Putin’s Russia. There was a general sense that 9/11 was the event that would fundamentally change the country—make us more serious, more Godly, more realistic about the world and the threats in it. But nearly a quarter of a century on, 9/11 has left no lasting mark on the country (except the TSA). If anything, we are less serious and more flippant regarding the need for strict immigration controls, fewer military interventions, and the importance of defending one’s own culture and history, including its creeds (religious and otherwise).
So to re-cap:
- The demise of the Boomers will, ironically, lead to greater generational conflict as the late-Boomers and Gen Xers fight with their younger siblings and grandchildren over the ruins of the welfare state and the diminishing returns of an economy that will not match the growth and opportunity of the past 40 years. Also, as Boomers reach the end of their productive and natural lives, there will be other profound effects on American society that are not fully knowable.
- The political realignment of the past 60 years is complete. The working class is now generally affiliated with the Republicans, while the Democrats are the party of wealthy, college-educated professionals. The latter are concentrated in the metropolitan areas on the coasts and upper Midwest and, thus, are able to control state and national politics in ways that Republicans cannot. This realignment has in many ways reinforced the regional conflicts (North vs South, East vs West) that have traditionally roiled American society. Nowhere is this more evident than on abortion. The states with complete bans are concentrated in the Southeast and, combined with several states (notably along the eastern seaboard) with partial bans, almost perfectly replicate the map of the Confederacy.
- The United States is living in a strange twilight period where its pride in its military prowess and title as “Defender of Democracy” no longer match reality. It is exactly at such moments that the elites commit to conflicts that cause the collapse of empires.
In 2020, UC San Diego professor Edward J. Watts wrote “The Final Pagan Generation” in which he describes the fate of several prominent Roman citizens over the course of the 4th Century, the period when the empire slowly transitioned from paganism to Christianity after the conversion of Emperor Constantine. The overall theme of the work is that the last pagans did not realize they were living in the final days of pagan Roman society and culture. As they reached middle age and then became elderly and died, life more or less went on as before. But there is now no doubt that the pagan world was crumbling under their feet.
Change is a constant and the world is always dying and being reborn as something else. The 2024 presidential contest may turn out to be something of a snooze-fest. In fact, if Biden wins, it will seem, in many ways, to be yet another delay in the long-awaited turning. But have no doubt, we are moving toward a watershed moment, and, like the youth of 1960s America absorbing the enormity of the Kennedy Assassination, we will be forever changed.
J.S. Scifo is a North County resident who has worked in national and state politics. You can also follow him at J.S. Scifo on Substack | Substack.