UPDATE …. Draft 39th Senate seat voted 52% Meg Whitman, just 40% Jerry Brown — So Who wants to be a GOP State Senator?

Jim Sills Jim Sills 1 Comment

Credible new number-crunching reveals the revised 39th state senate seat depicted above (held by Chris Kehoe now) would have a 38%  to 34% GOP registration edge, and backed Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown by a 52% to 40% margin in 2010.  (Hat tip to Redistricting Partners group.)  Stunner!  This would now be a clear-cut GOP seat, not just a competitive one, if adopted …

Preliminary State Senate Maps — Toni Atkins now has a Rocky Road to the Upper House — Republicans could regain SD 39

Jim Sills Jim Sills 14 Comments

Last January 31,  SD Rostra foresaw a Republican takeover chance in  mid-county’s 39th State Senate District.  That prediction looks pretty good in preliminary maps (see above) issued this week by the State Redistricting Commission’s staff.  The area now served by Chris Kehoe would add Republican strongholds like Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, and Scripps Ranch. The maps also seem to show El …

Preliminary North County Assembly Maps— Rocky Chavez vs. Sherry Hodges on The Coast— Marie Waldron now the Inland District Republican frontrunner

Jim Sills Jim Sills 8 Comments

The State Redistricting Commission will view these draft maps drawn by their staff this week.  View all of them here for the entire state: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/meeting_handouts.html If they are adopted (no certainty!) here’s how they appear to affect North County’s Assembly districts.  Caveat:  These analyses are written on the fly, and the Maps may well be changed later. First,  the COASTAL …

Other San Diego Assembly Maps — Martin Block’s AD 78 is “dismembered” — and GOP gets pick-up Chance on Coast

Jim Sills Jim Sills 4 Comments

If the preliminary California Staff-prepared maps stand up, here are the remaining SD County Assembly maps, and they all spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Assemblyman Martin Block (D), and an OPPORTUNITY for Republicans to win a Coastal district from Democrats. http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/meeting_handouts.html Block faces 3 options: (1) stay in his current East SD home and challenge popular GOP incumbent Brian Jones in a …

Shhhhh! — Republicans can win a Redrawn 39th senate seat…. Attn: Poway Roger, D7 Voter, Barry Jantz.. Act now, Pilgrims!

Jim Sills Jim Sills 10 Comments

Next August the voter-approved  ‘Cititzens Redistricting Commission’ will release  newly-drawn maps for all state Senate, Assembly and Congressional districts.  This is your Distant Early Warning that senate seat 39  [Kehoe, term-limited]  will likely see the biggest changes in San Diego county,  and they are certain to make it competitive for Republicans again. The next GOP senator from the 39th may be living …