I realize the below doesn’t take into account registration, turnout, downrace dropoff, or other differences countywide or in Santee itself, but it’s one measurement to assess these things:
Santee is about .017 the population of San Diego County.
There are 135,000 ballots left to tally, countywide. Proportionally, based on a population calculation alone, that’s 2,295 ballots in Santee. One quarter of the city (one city council seat) would thus be about 574 ballots.
In the District 4 city council race, Samm Hurst (D) leads Dustin Trotter (R) by 95 votes, with Trotter ticking closer with every update.
The first count on election night had Hurst leading, 55.6 to 44.4 percent, a 553 vote lead.
2,300 votes have been tabulated in the race since then. Astoundingly, Trotter has picked up about 59 percent of those added votes, 1,379 to Hurst’s 921.
Apply that 59 percent rate on the guesstimated 574 outstanding ballots:
Trotter would get 338 of them, 113 more than Hurst, and win the seat by a whopping 18 votes.
Check my math, please. But this race is totally up for grabs. The question is if Trotter has enough runway left.
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NOTE: Let me know if you’d like a quick assessment in any other close contests. firstname.lastname@example.org