San Diego Mayor’s Race Part 3

Criticus Criticus 13 Comments


Normally I feel somewhat obligated to fact check posts by “mouth of the local gop” Mr. Murphy. So I did some calling around about the San Diego Mayor’s race. Turns out Murphy is correct: it sounds like Dumanis and Filner are in the race. To Filner first: if he runs, and he is the only Democrat, he is pretty much assured a spot in the run off. Easy.

The Dumanis entry is more interesting I think. I’d heard over and over that Dumanis and Mayor Sanders were going to support Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher for the Mayor’s seat. Fletcher, instead of Councilman Faulconer, had become the downtown establishment choice. Now I hear that Dumanis has decided to run, and that Sanders and his former chief of staff Kris Michel, are backing the DA for the job. Making it more complicated I hear that Fletcher has hired Sanders’ consultant Tom Shepard! I’ve also got to give Fletcher some credit: I bet I made half a dozen calls or emails on this topic and every one of them said the same thing, that Fletcher has been on the phone talking day in and day out making sure that everyone knows that he is in the race to stay. This wasn’t the best week for him politically, but sometimes these things go to the ones that work the hardest.


Comments 13

  1. Since nobody officially took Barry up on his bet, I’ll take it! I’ll put up an Albondigas lunch and say Bonnie goes in and her name appears on the ballot.

  2. I was beginning to think everyone was scared. And, honestly, I was also beginning to hope no one would accept, as it’s beginning to look like she may get in. But, being a man of my word — even though I once was an elected official — I accept! Thanks, Chris.

  3. I hear Fletcher “hired” Shepard but that Fletcher is going to run the campaign himself! OK, I like the guy but seriously can anyone answer this little riddle: when did the bright boy ever have a real election? Answer? Never.

  4. OK. So Fletcher has been calling everyone in town saying he’s in this to stay. “I’d rather lose for Mayor than go back to Sacramento” (well said). My question: does he protest too much? Will he really sacrifice his seat in Sacramento to take politicians that, love them or not, are probably better positioned (Filner, Dumanis, Demaio)?

  5. I’d argue there is plenty of room for Fletcher. If Filner is really in and he is the only Democrat he gets what, 30 to 40 %? De Maio what 15%? Dumanis maybe 20%. Francis lord only knows. Lot of vets in San Diego! Plenty of room for Fletcher to grow IF he can raise the money.


  6. The UT referenced an independent poll showing DeMaio on top at 28%, followed by Filner at 20%. Dumanis at 10%. Fletcher at the back of the pack — a paltry 6%.

  7. Go, Go Go and “Poll”:

    Thanks for the info, and your enthusiasm is appreciated.
    We need to guard against this turning into a college semi-
    nar on Poli Sci theory. Please post to Rostra again !

  8. The key question is who has the best chance of beating Filner in the general election. A poll that simply asks that question could be very enlightening.

  9. DeMaio would clobber Filner. Kevin would beat him too. I suspect even Fletcher could beat Filner. Why, even Dumanis probably could win, though it would be close, I think.

    As the only name Democrat, Filner (if Frye doesn’t run) has a good shot at making the runoff, he’d BE like Frye in such a runoff. In 2005 Donna finished first in the special election mayoral primary, but clearly was doomed in the general as voters mostly gravitated to the only remaining non-Democrat.

    Filner will be funded by the labor unions, but in this election that’s going to be seen as a huge NEGATIVE. He’ll be seen for what he is — just another labor union stooge. That might work in his South Bay congressional district, but it won’t fly with the disgusted voters of the city of San Diego — even though Democrat voters constitute a plurality.

  10. Filner is a tough SOB when it comes to campaigning. He takes nothing for granted. Remember a few years ago when his only opponent was some old lady representing the Green Party. She had no chance of winning and Filner sent out hit pieces on her.

  11. Richard, I think you underestimate Filner and overestimate the ability of a sitting Council member to be elected Mayor, something that has never happened before.

    My tea leaves tell me that Fletcher and Dumanis would have the best chance of beating Filner; Fletcher due to his own personal story and charisma and Dumanis because she is the only one to have won a race that wasn’t limited to 1/8 of the City.

    As I said previously, a poll would be very instructive.

  12. One of the Indian tribes paid for a poll on the Mayor’s race two weeks ago.

    The polling shows DeMaio in the lead right now. It also shows DeMaio handily winning Republicans, and picking up 20% of Democrats.

    Fletcher is back-of-the-pack. Dumanis is in a better position than Fletcher, but still not up with DeMaio and Filner.

    However, the election is 16 months away so this is only a snapshot and things could change.

  13. The question is not only who would get out of a crowded primary and into the general election, but who would win that general election. As an analogy on the national level, Obama’s approval ratings may be below 50%, but polls show him beating any of the potential Republican candidates.

    Before anyone decides whether to support DeMaio, Fletcher, Dumanis, Faulconer, Francis, Goldsmith, Geppert or any other Republican who gets into the race, it might be nice to know who would fare best in the general election.

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