Report: November Election Promises Competitive, Pivotal Races in San Diego

Vince Vasquez Vince Vasquez Leave a Comment

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                                                            October 6, 2014

CONTACT:   Vince Vasquez

vvasquez@nu.edu

Report: November Election Promises Competitive, Pivotal Races in San Diego
Higher Voter Turnout, Moderate Electorate Projected

SAN DIEGO – As early voting begins today in the November 4th gubernatorial general election, the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) identified key dynamics to look for in the election cycle. Using GIS software and data from the Registrar of Voters, NUSIPR evaluated results from the previous June election and made new assessments for November.

Overall, we found that:

  • Voter turnout will be higher than the June election (which was 27%). At this point in time, NUSIPR projects countywide voter turnout to be in the range of 42-46%.
  • San Diego’s “red summer” will make way for a “purple fall.” After strong Republican dominance at the polls in June, the November electorate will be comprised of more Democratic and Independent voters. Controversial ballot measures may also have some effect in generating higher turnout from moderate and progressive voters.
  • New voters will be a significant factor in key races. Based on a precinct analysis, new/casual voters (defined as those that either were not registered in June or who missed June) are expected to be a significant factor in the 52nd Congressional District race, and to a lesser extent, the San Diego City Council District 6 race.
  • For San Diego County, 2014 is the “Year of the Mayor.” Following February’s City of San Diego mayoral special election, there are eleven mayoral contests on the fall ballot, of which more than half are competitive and expected to generate voter interest in other cities in the county.

“With close contests expected in both the 52nd Congressional District and City Council District 6, there is a chance that an ‘October surprise’ may shake up the election – exogenous events, late breaking news, as well as candidate-related controversies and allegations may emerge between now and Election Day, with electoral consequences,” remarked Vince Vasquez, author of the report. “This is especially true because of the thousands of new and casual voters that are expected to cast their ballots this election are not regular observers of politics and current affairs.”

The complete copy of the report can be found at the NUSIPR website:

Election Analysis

About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a non-partisan, non-profit organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy, and public opinion research so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region’s residents.

NUSIPR publishes regular independent research and analysis for the public on a range of topics, including unemployment, business growth, and the San Diego housing market. The Institute also works collaboratively with clients to develop high quality research products that are tailored to their policy needs.

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