SAN DIEGO – New Council District lines drawn for the City of San Diego will likely create more competitive elections and shift the balance of power at City Hall. Those are the major findings of a new study published today by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR).
On August 25, 2011, the seven members of the City of San Diego Redistricting Commission adopted new boundary lines for City Council Districts, while also adding a ninth Council seat. NUSIPR used GIS and database software to analyze voter data available from county, state and federal government agencies.
NUISPR’s research suggested four key findings:
San Diego City Council District elections are likely to become more competitive than in previous years. The number of Council Districts with 5% or smaller gaps between registered Republican and Democratic voters has increased from two to four.
The addition of a ninth Council seat will shift the balance of power at San Diego City Hall. After the 2012 election, the number of Council votes needed to create a “supermajority” and override a mayoral veto will increase from five to six, reflecting the addition of District Nine. With Republican registration increasing significantly in three Council Districts, Democrats will find it more difficult to maintain their current supermajority on the City Council.
The increase in “Decline to State Voters” is likely to have an impact even greater than the new district boundaries. NUSIPR analysis showed that voters registering without a party preference will be critical in determining the outcome of almost every Council District election.
Variations in Turnout will also prove key. Outcomes in the Council Districts are also likely to be impacted by levels of voting participation, with infrequent voters determining the outcome of almost every Council District election.
“With the new Council District lines, voters are likely to see more contested races and vulnerable office holders on Election Day,” remarked the report’s author Vince Vasquez, Senior Policy Analyst at NUSIPR. “With neither political party likely to dominate the Council by a large margin, successful policymaking will require more coalition building and less partisanship at City Hall.”
The full version of the City Council District study can be found at the NUSIPR website, here.