Last January 31, SD Rostra foresaw a Republican takeover chance in mid-county’s 39th State Senate District. That prediction looks pretty good in preliminary maps (see above) issued this week by the State Redistricting Commission’s staff. The area now served by Chris Kehoe would add Republican strongholds like Rancho Bernardo, Penasquitos, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, and Scripps Ranch. The maps also seem to show El Cajon, La Mesa and a chunk of Spring Valley going to SD 39 as well! Meanwhile a few strongly Democratic Midtown neighborhoods are removed. Oops!
This is reminiscent of the 39th District which elected Larry Stirling (R) in 1988, Jim Ellis (R) in 1984 and 1980 and Jack Schrade in 1968 and 1972. State Assemblywoman Toni Atkins (D) is the acknowledged Democrat front-runner in 2012, when Kehoe is term-limited … but suddenly this would become a very competitive seat for Republicans too. How would Toni Atkins play in the colorful Cajon Zone? You make the call.
Possible Republican candidates, and only speculation now: Former State Assemblymen George Plescia and Jay La Suer, and ex-San Diego Councilman Brian Maienschein.
…………………..Other San Diego county State Senate Seats
In remaining local districts, Sen. Joel Anderson looks to have a safer seat, with his 36th district moving northward to Escondido, Fallbrook and Ramona….. Mark Wyland’s SD 38 would become a North/South corridor, from Oceanside to Coronado! Martin Garrick’s Solana Beach base is in the middle of that GOP-leaning seat. He may run to succeed Senator Wyland in 2014. And if Juan Vargas chooses to stay in the State Senate, he would have a safely Democratic seat in SD 40.
You can see all the draft California Redistricting Commission staff maps at this link: http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/meeting_handouts.html
Caveat: These maps are still preliminary … I’m writing these analyses on the fly … this is a starting point for what will be lots of discussion. So, please close cover before striking, hold all Bingo cards, and Leave the Reds in Cincinnati!
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Jim Sills is a San Diego political consultant. If you have questions about your future in San Diego and California elections, you can contact Jim at this e-mail address: YourElectionVictory@Hotmail.com
He has aided the campaigns of Rep. Darrell Issa, Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, Senators Joel Anderson and Tony Strickland, Representatives Devin Nunes and J.D. Hayworth, County Assessor & Recorder Greg Smith, among many others in California and beyond.