Scott Rasmussen, generally regarded as the most accurate pollster in the business, mentioned that debates have little or no influence on the eventual election results, but I disagree. I think both the first Presidential debate and the recent San Diego Mayoral debate gave the fence sitters “permission” to vote for the respective Republicans in each race.
I favor former Libertarian candidate and Vegas odds-maker Wayne Allyn Root’s predictions about a Romney landslide. In this June video, Root offered an unscientific but logical explanation about how a Romney landslide is more likely than not. He starts with the premise that not one 2008 McCain voter will vote for Obama over McCain. Then he points out that enthusiasm for Obama is down in each of these demographic groups:
- African-American voters may be down as much as 6% due to his support for same-sex marriage
- Hispanic voters may be down as much as 10% for the same reason
- Support from Jewish voters, 78% of whom supported the President in 2008, should drop to the low 60s
- Under-30 voters are frustrated with the job market. Enthusiasm and turnout will be much lower than it was in 2008.
- Catholic voters, the majority of whom supported Obama in 2008, are frustrated with his “War on the Catholic Church”
- Small business owners, who were willing to give Obama a chance in 2008, have mostly abandoned him
- white, working-class voters, not in unions, feel hopeless about jobs prospects
- mothers care more about the rising debt and jobs prospects than they do about free contraception
- military veterans supported McCain by a 10% margin and support Romney by as much as a 24% margin
Add them all up, and this smells like a Romney 5-7 percent popular vote win and 300-plus vote electoral college win. I predict Romney wins all of the “toss-up” states, on this map, and perhaps moves Pennsylvania into his column.
Similarly, DeMaio is building the winning coalition. His best talking point is, as always, Bob Filner. When Bob opens his mouth, he gives every mainstream Democrat, independent, and ‘Fletcher Republican‘ “permission” to vote for DeMaio. As news of #coingtossgate gets around (and the DeMaio campaign should release as many commercials highlighting Filner’s temper tantrums, be they about coin tosses or assaulting airline employees, or bullying border patrol agents), most rational actors reject Bob Filner.
I’ll look at the June primary results and speculate a bit:
- Not one Demaio voter is going to “defect” to Filner’; not one. That locks down 31% of the vote.
- Less than 25% of Fletcher’s support will move to Filner. The “Movement to the Middle” coalition is behind DeMaio. That earns another 17-20%
- If as many as one-third of Dumanis’ supporters break for Filner (unlikely because of the Sanders endorsement), this brings 8-9% to DeMaio.
Add those up and DeMaio wins 55-60 percent of the vote. Critics might suggest that the Democratic enthusiasm was tempered in the June primary since the top of the ticket only had one option (Obama). I would ask those critics to look at the June ballot propositions. Labor unions, which influence as much as 80% of the Democratic base, turned out in big numbers in June…and they still got crushed at the ballot box. Assuming that every “NO on Prop B” voter goes with Filner, he would have to win at least one out of four (YES on Prop B) voters to achieve a slim margin of victory. That seems highly unlikely. More telling is the “softer” ballot proposition (Prop A) for Project Labor Agreements. That passed with a 58 percent margin which, in my best estimation, is right where the DeMaio victory should be.
Filner had a chance to position himself as the “reasonable” leader, who might implement those ballot propositions in a “kinder, gentler way” than DeMaio. But this general election has shown both men’s true colors. Bob Filner is a partisan, combative, spoiled brat who throws hissy fits when he doesn’t get his way. Carl DeMaio is polished, has control of his emotions, is goal-oriented, and has better self-discipline. Which of those qualities do you think the mainstream independents and Democrats seek in a mayor?
The only poll which really matters is the one on November 6, 2012. Prognostications, be they by a Vegas odds-maker or a mortgage markets analyst from Solana Beach, are just unscientific guesses BUT…I’m predicting that ….
- Romney wins the Presidency with at least 53 percent of the popular vote and at least 300 electoral votes
- DeMaio becomes San Diego’s next mayor with at least 55 percent of the vote.
That’s my story and I’m sticking with it. Vote early and often, folks.