Interesting methodology at play in this San Diego mayoral poll, targeting Facebook users and cross-referencing them with the voter file.
The number of seniors included would seem to counter any push back IVN may get that older voters are less likely to be on Facebook, thus the results must be skewed in favor of younger and more left leaning voters.
Press Release
2016 PRIMARY ELECTION: MAYORAL POLL
SAN DIEGO – The Independent Voter Network San Diego has conducted a Mayoral Poll for the 2016 Primary election on June 7 in San Diego. It was conducted over the past four days.
The poll represents an unbiased, cross-section of registered voters in the City of San Diego. The poll was filled out by over 600 people and has a +/- margin of error of 3.5%.
IVN San Diego used a proprietary technique to target registered voters on Facebook and connect their party registration to their poll choices. Only those voters who were targeted were included in the results. If someone navigated to the poll on their own, or was sent the poll from an outside source, it was denoted in their entry and not included in the result.
To further ensure accuracy, duplicates were identified through a number of factors and removed.
The results are the following (percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding):
When asked if the election were held today which mayoral candidate would you vote for?
Kevin Faulconer: 48.06%
Lori Saldaña: 26.41%
Ed Harris: 20.47%
Other: 5.06%
How strong is your support for your chosen candidate?
Very strong: 63.23%
Already voted by mail: 24.58%
Not very strong: 8.26%
Considering changing vote: 3.94%
We are now going to identify the three candidates by party affiliation. How would you vote?
Rep. Kevin Faulconer: 46.97%
Independent Lori Saldaña: 26.10%
Dem. Ed Harris: 23.36%
Undecided/Other: 3.57%
The poll was weighted to match turnouts similar to the last two Presidential primary elections in 2008 and 2012.
Those turnouts are seen below:
Registered Democrat: 45.00%
Registered Republican: 35.00%
Registered NPP/Independent: 20.00%
Engagement was also tracked by age:
18-24: 5.05%
25-34: 8.70%
35-44: 10.55%
45-54: 19.96%
55-64: 25.63%
65+: 30.11%
Key Findings:
- Mayor Faulconer is within the margin of error of winning the election outright in June
- When party affiliation is identified Democratic candidate Ed Harris gets the biggest bump of nearly 3%
- The methodology may understate the number of undecideds. An important factor in a race in which only one candidate is receiving substantial funding
For more information visit this link.
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