With term limits and aging careers set to impact the current Board of Supervisors over the next four to six years, the partisan makeup of the Board will almost certainly change. Based on voter registration statistics and other demographic treads, the Board is set to change to a long term 3-2 Democrat majority.
But that’s only if we don’t take back the Dave Roberts seat. That’s right, Robert’s seat is the key to a Republican majority and is the third most Republican seat in the County — currently a five point Republican registration advantage. That should be a safe Republican seat in San Diego — at worst a lean Republican district even in a Presidential general election year.
The problem in 2012 is we ran a candidate that was a chief of staff to the most unpopular institution in America, Congress. That candidate’s consultant ran an ineffective campaign, and now we have a Democrat supervisor in a Republican seat.
How do we change that? Finding a viable candidate who can fundraise and run an effective campaign must be a top priority. We need someone who is a proven campaigner and a proven winner.
The best candidate we have, if he is willing, is former Assemblyman George Plescia. Plescia represented large chunks of this district during his time in the assembly and ran there during his long shot state senate campaign in 2012.
Plescia is a solid campaigner with a great rolodex at his disposal. He would be a shoe-in in a heads up race in the primary and would be the favorite in the general due to the natural Republican voter registration advantage.
I really hope Plescia will run for this seat. Many would like to see him back as a public servant with a proven track record of being able to get things done.
Comments 12
Hmmm…..maybe. Beating incumbents is VERY hard and, at least so far, Dave R. hasn’t taken any really hard votes (which are, frankly, pretty rare on the board).
So I MIGHT suggest thinking more about the looming open seats and which more conservative candidates would “fit” and could be positioned.
Shirely Horton for Cox’s Seat
Kevin F. for Roberts.
I like this idea a lot actually. Plescia will be able to outraise what Danon raised, and he is a good campaigner. Turnout in 2016 will not be as high for dems as it was in 08 and 12 with Obama on the ballot. There is a really opportunity for here to win this.
Faulconer would have to run in Ron Roberts’ seat, which I think is a real up hill battle. I think he passes on it.
I like Horton for Cox’s seat, she has the ability to get cross over votes in area she has won tough elections in.
Question:
Dave Roberts was a republican. He is a fiscal conservative and actually is a very nice person. I don’t see how we can spend GOP time and energy trying to defeat someone just because he won. Is he effective for this district? So far I would say he is. Is he working everyday for me, I would say yes he is!!
The election is over and if people from both sides can’t get on board with who won that is a shame.
It is not like Dave is Bob Filner!! He is a low key, very caring person who I for one, a GOP member have gotten to like.
Spin the political minds towards something that is a value.
Pam Slater who is a GOPer supported Dave and he won.
Let’s see how he does for the next few years representing us before you try to find a replacement just because he use to be a GOPer and now is not.
Scott, you are smarter than that.
You know what will happen when the Democrats get their holds on a majority in the supervisors. the same problems we have seen in the past with the dem majority on the sd council.
Plescia is a great public official who would be a great on the board.
you have to plan for the future.
I like George…I supported and walked for him. I still consider him a good friend…
But I really don’t think Dave Roberts votes will be loved by the Dems…but only time will tell. Dave won and I am not unhappy with Dave.. I like him, sorry!! And I am smarter then that ha-ha!!!
I am very interested in Carl running. I was really sad when he lost and of course look at what we have going on now with our mayor.
Carl can win the 52nd, and I hope the fact he will be in a fight every 2 years wont detract him from running. The GOP should get everyone behind Carl and push him to run.
I did enjoy the money I won, wagering that Fletcher would be a Dem before July 2013. I will take my wife and son out to dinner for mothers day on that!!
I enjoy reading these more then posting…so I said my piece and will go back to reading…. Everyone have a great day!!
George Plescia took one for the team in an uphill battle against Marty Block. He did not run from the party like his Assembly seat successor when things didn’t go his way. I just do not see Plescia becoming a permanent uphill battle candidate. He is not one of those people that needs to be in office to make his life complete. I do think that if he sees this as a viable opportunity, and the support is there, he’d give it serious consideration.
Again – the number of incumbent county supervisors who have lost in California over the past 50 years are probably counted on one hand. They just don’t take votes which “hurt” – in large part because the land use votes they DO take are off in the unincorporated areas where no one lives. _MAYBE_ if you can revive plans for the freeway through RSF (*saracasm*) you could get a tough one in front of him. But otherwise he has to REALLY screw up – like criminally – before a challenger would have much of a shot.
I wish George well and if he runs I will support. But I hope that calmer heads prevail in respect to limited resources. Far better to try to beat, for example, Lori Saldana or Howard Wayne with Kevin or get Shirely Horton elected over Denise Ducheny than try to somehow beat an incumbent in a race that only insiders pay ANY attention to.
Hmmmm,
“…the same problems we have seen in the past with the dem majority on the sd council.”
What problems are you referring to? I hope it is not the pension, since that started with a Republican Mayor and a Republican majority on the Council.
Hypocrisy is right! Forgotten is that in the 1990’s the GOP held sway in our San Diego city hall — the period when city pensions spiraled out of control. Yes, the Dems had city council seats too — and they ALL were clueless — believing the absurd pension projections of City Manager Jack McGrory because — well — Jack has a resonant deep voice, and is tall.
Never considered was the fact that the City Manager ADVISING the city on unwise, RETROACTIVE pension increases was the guy who profited MOST from the opulent pensions.
Did I mention “clueless”?
I’m talking about the fact that the seiu pushed term limits with the goal of taking the majority on the BOS. They got the Dave Roberts seat. When they take the other two (which is more likely than not), we need a superior candidate who can win this seat back and hold it. Plescia looks pretty good right now.
George Plescia lives in La Jolla in Supervisor Ron Roberts’ district, not Supervisor Dave Roberts’ district.
When there was an open seat for district three Plescia refused to move to run. So he is not going to do it now to run against an incumbent, who by all accounts, including both Republican and Democrat movers and shakers in the district, is doing a great job. Dave Roberts is a fiscally conservative, socially moderate supervisor who appeals to all voters. In his election, I heard he was outspent on the campaign trail by more than five to one, yet he still won. In three-plus years he will be in an even stronger position to wipe out the opposition. Plescia is a smart guy. He will look for an election where he actually has a chance. This isn’t it.
Richard,
Not only was the Council clueless once (increasing benefits and doing so RETROACTIVELY while decreasing contributions), they did it again only a few short years later. This time four Democrats, including a future Congressman and a future Assembly Member joined four Republicans, including the Mayor and another future Assembly Member in voting for this defiance of basic mathematical principles. Interestingly, Donna Frye, the only one who seemingly had learned from the mistakes of her predecessors, never had the success her colleagues had when running for higher office.