Update from Registrar, 11/15/24…
In Friday’s update from the Registrar of Voters, Esther Sanchez gained over 56 percent of the added 814 votes. For the first time, she now leads Ryan Keim by a 31-vote sliver.
To be very clear, the 56.26 percent the mayor took in added ballots is the highest percentage she’s garnered thus far, indicating Sanchez was favored more by later voters. As the trend in her direction has not changed since the day following election day, everything suggests she will continue to pull ahead in remaining ballots, which I estimate to be about 2,500 at most.
This is from the Registrar…
Update, 11/14/24…
In last night’s updated tally, Esther Sanchez gained 52.85 percent of the added 2,952 votes. She now trails Ryan Keim by a mere 71 votes.
Here’s Mason Herron’s totals from The Ballot Book…
Sanchez is on a pace to close the gap and hold on to the mayor’s seat.
The most recent added Oceanside ballots total 3,240, with only 2,952 of those marked in the mayor’s race. That’s an undervote of 9.1 percent, similar to the last update.
With Herron estimating 4,351 ballots remaining in Oceanside, the undervote could mean about 3,500 to 4,000 of them marked in the mayor’s race. Sanchez would need roughly 51 percent of the remaining votes to win.
The potential life-saver for Keim is a much smaller number of remaining ballots than estimated here.
The next updated count is Friday, 11/15 by 6 p.m.
Update, 11/12/24…
Well, I may have to roll back that original headline (Keim advantage), but I’m not a face-saving Orwellian, so I won’t. Suffice it to say that in last night’s updated numbers from the Registrar of Voters, Esther Sanchez took 52.76 percent of the added 6,374 votes, and she now only trails Ryan Keim by 239.
Sanchez’s percentage gain outpaces all three of the scenarios I provided yesterday. If she keeps that pace, she’ll pass Keim and win reelection.
A quick assessment, then. The added Oceanside ballots total 7,001. With 6,374 of those marked in the mayor’s race, that’s an undervote of 9.1 percent (627 voters not making a selection in this race). That’s higher than before and could indicate late voters being less inclined to do anything in down-ballot races.
With an estimated 7,963 ballots remaining to tally in Oceanside, the undervote might be key. Assume anywhere from 7,200 to 7,600 of those ballots to be marked for a mayoral candidate. Sanchez would need about 51.5 to 51.7 percent of the remaining votes to win.
Based on her most recent grab of 52.76 percent, that becomes more and more a likely scenario.
The next updated count is Wednesday, 11/13 by 6 p.m. The fewer remaining ballots the better for Keim.
This one’s a doozy.
Original Post, 11/11/24…
In possibly the most closely watched yet-to-be-decided contest in the region, Deputy Mayor Ryan Keim is holding a slim lead of 591 votes over incumbent Mayor Esther Sanchez in Oceanside.
Local consultant and numbers cruncher Mason Herron, publisher of the superb The Ballot Book, estimates 14,170 outstanding Oceanside ballots. Sanchez would need 52.09 percent of those ballots to close the gap on Keim.
Do-able? Yes, possibly.
I’m now taking an additional math step or two, so bear with me.
Those 14,170 remaining Oceanside ballots? That’s about 5.67 percent of the estimated 250,000 uncounted region-wide ballots. So, how is the 5.67 percent derived?
Simple. The region-wide ballots counted thus far stand at 1,243,527. Of those, 70,478 were from Oceanside. That equates to the 5.67 percent.
Thus, a totally fair way to assess it. If Oceanside is casting 5.67 percent of the county’s ballots, it stands to reason that’s the percentage to use to determine what’s left to count.
Okay. However…
If 70,478 ballots have been tallied so far in Oceanside, why is there only a combined vote of 65,793 for Sanchez and Keim?
That’s the undervote or drop-off. Yes, 70,478 ballots have been counted, but 4,685 Oceanside voters opted not to make a selection in the mayor’s contest. This undervote “phenomenon” (not really one at all) is more prominent in a presidential election, with voters turning out to weigh in at the “top of the ticket” but leaving blank the lower level offices.
In Oceanside, 6.6 percent of those submitting ballots decided not to opt between Sanchez and Keim.
Ok, I’ll stop boring you with arithmetic right before your eyes, just to say I’m applying that same undervote rate to the estimated remaining Oceanside ballots. I then come up with only 13,225 ballots that will be marked in the mayor’s race. Sanchez would need over 52.24 percent of those to catch Keim.
The Ballot Book’s Herron says he doesn’t apply the undervote because of the difficulty in accurately assessing it for candidates. I can’t disagree with him. I’m applying it in this case as a calculated assumption of another potential scenario.
Sorry, one more caveat. Although Oceanside accounts for 5.67 percent of the region-wide ballots tallied thus far, the city makes up only 5.46 percent of the county registered voters. Taking that even lower number into account along with the estimated undervote, there could be as few as 12,750 votes left to count for mayor. Sanchez would need about 52.32 percent of that number.
This isn’t even allowing for the number of ballots — whatever the count — ultimately rejected for other problems. It happens every election.
The result of all this brings up a fair question. Whether Mayor Sanchez needs 52.09, 52.25, or 52.32 percent of the remaining ballots, what’s the difference? It all seems negligible.
If she gains 53 or 54 percent the rest of the way, Sanchez likely pulls ahead easily. Yep.
Yet keep in mind Sanchez has garnered 50.69 percent of the added 5,064 votes the last few days. Every tenth of a percentage is a significant in a race this close. A full point difference? Moreso than simply significant.
The ultimate answer to the question of “what’s the difference” comes down to one thing. Runway.
How much runway does Sanchez have left to catch up? That depends on the actual number of uncounted ballots remaining in Oceanside, actually marked in the mayor’s race.
Yeah, this one could end up even closer than it is now. But, advantage: Keim.
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Barry Jantz, a former La Mesa City Councilmember and retired CEO of the Grossmont Healthcare District, now specializes in community affairs, strategic planning, and workforce development with Jantz Communications.