Happy Thanksgiving week everybody! I hope this blog finds you well and that you all enjoy spending the day with family, good food, and hopefully some exciting football. I feel like just yesterday it was week four in the NFL, but the season just keeps cruising along! Let’s see what exciting (and boring) matchups we have this week.
PICKS (117-61 Overall)
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) @ Detroit Lions (7-4)
- The Lions are fresh off of an unexpected OT win against the Giants, where their defense looked a bit like swiss cheese. Over the past several years, American families have gotten used to certain traditions on Thanksgiving Day: the Macy’s Day Parade, prepping a turkey for an amazing meal, and witnessing the Lions lose to their opponent at Ford Field. The Packers have been solid for the most part this year, but I think the Lions pick up a huge division win, keeping them alive in the race for the NFC North.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
- This game was a bit harder for me to pick than it should of been. The Chiefs are the Chiefs, and Mahomes has never lost a game on a Wednesday, Thursday, or Saturday. Every game from here on out is basically a playoff game for the Chiefs, so I think they make a statement on national television.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
- Well, Joe Burrow is back in action after a midseason surgery, but I’m not quite sure why he’s playing. The Bengals are almost certainly out of the playoff race at 3-8, but Burrow wants to try a resurrect his team and drag them into the postseason. The Ravens have quietly won five straight and are sitting atop the AFC North. I think they take care of business on Thanksgiving night.
Chicago Bears (8-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
- I guarantee nobody thought that the Bears and Eagles would have the same records going into this game at the beginning of the season. I believe the Eagles will be angry after blowing a 21-0 lead against the Cowboys last week, and I imagine they are doing everything they can to figure out their offensive woes. If this game were in Chicago, I would definitely consider taking the Bears, but I think it’s very difficult to win in Philly.
Buffalo Bills (7-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
- Aaron Rodgers is planning to return to action after his wrist injury, which is good news for the Steelers’ offense. The Bills defense has had it’s struggles this year, especially against the run. The Steelers are committed to the run game, so I think they can win in an ugly game.
San Francisco 49ers (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-8)
- Shedeur Sanders played a very serviceable game against the Raiders last week, picking up his first win as a starting QB. He gets the chance to start again this week, but against a much better opponent. Even though it seems very difficult to play in Cleveland during the winter, I think the Niners win here.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) @ Tennessee Titans (1-10)
- This is an important AFC South game for the Jags, as they try to keep pace with the Colts in the division. Luckily, the Titans have not been impressive this season, so if the Jaguars can limit their turnovers, I think they win pretty easily.
Houston Texans (6-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
- This Texans defense is for real. After shutting down Josh Allen and the Bills last week, let’s see if they can limit Jonathan Taylor and this high-powered offense. I think this will be a very close game, but I’m taking the Colts to win by a field goal.
New Orleans Saints (2-9) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7)
- Yeahhhhh, I don’t have much to say about this one. Both teams are pretty much coasting for the rest of the year, hoping to get as good of a draft pick as they can. I think the Dolphins offense has turned it on these past few weeks, so I’ll take them off the bye week to keep it rolling.
Atlanta Falcons (4-7) @ New York Jets (2-9)
- Here’s a game I will not be watching! Talk about a disappointment for both teams. The Falcons have potentially the most exciting player in the league in Bijan Robinson, but they’ve really struggled with how to structure their offense from week to week. The Jets are the same ole Jets, playing the same meaningless football in November that they are used to.
Los Angeles Rams (9-2) @ Carolina Panthers (6-6)
- The Rams could be the most complete team in the NFL, with their amazing offensive weapons and stout, young defensive talent. Sean McVay knows how to best exploit the opposing defense, and I think he uses this opportunity to prove to voters why Matthew Stafford should win 2025 NFL MVP.
Arizona Cardinals (3-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
- With Baker Mayfield getting injured on Monday Night against the Rams, I lean the Cardinals in this one. Jacoby Brissett has done a solid job keeping this offense relevant, and I think it’ll be hard for the Bucs to score with all of their injuries.
Minnesota Vikings (4-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
- What is going on in Minnesota? Max Brosmer (who?) will be starting for the Vikings, with JJ McCarthy entering the concussion protocol after last week. Talk about a tough defense to make your first NFL start against.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- The Raiders are the most disappointing team in the NFL, as they just fired their OC Chip Kelly this week. I love Jim Harbaugh’s teams after a bye week, and I think they win big at home.
Denver Broncos (9-2) @ Washington Commanders (3-8)
- I feel like I say it every week, but this Broncos defense is absolutely menacing. Washington is still dealing with quite a few injuries, and I see it being pretty tough for them to score enough against Denver.
New York Giants (2-10) @ New England Patriots (10-2)
- This game is actually kind of exciting, even though the records are incredibly lopsided. Jaxson Dart might be back for the Giants, but even if he’s not, we’ll get some gunslinging QB play out of Jameis Winston. I think the Patriots win, but I would not be shocked if the Giants pull off an upset!
BETS (22-13 Overall)
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-130)
Jaguars/Titans Over 41.5 Points (-110)
Marquise Brown Over 1.5 Receptions (-160)
FANTASY
Last Week’s Pick: Cleveland Browns DEF (18.00 points – hard to not pick Myles Garrett’s defense!)
Mark Andrews should be a solid start against the Bengals, which has the worst defense against tight ends this season.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving week!