National total death rate now from all causes (including COVID-19) is BELOW the “expected total death rate”

Richard Rider, Chairman, San Diego Tax Fighters Undesignated 5 Comments


I can’t find a definitive study or conclusion about the effect of the coronavirus on the lost life expectancy of the people who die.  It’s something that is NOT being mentioned or considered by the press or pundits.  One early study claiming that the coronavirus cut 10 years off the average infected dead person’s life has been totally debunked.  But my searching finds nothing else so far.

I would think that this factor should be an important consideration.  We know that the OVERWHELMING majority of COVID-19 deaths are very senior people who usually had other major health problems and a limited life span to begin with.  But beyond that general observation, nobody seems to be studying the longevity factor.

As is my wont, I’ve been digging around on the CDC website. I found some bizarre figures on the TOTAL national weekly “excess deaths.”  In their data on the coronavirus, CDC defines the aggregate “excess deaths” as the percent of weekly TOTAL deaths compared with the previous three years’ average deaths.

Clearly COVID-19 has increased the total deaths this year.  I’ve included the weekly data in a chart below from CDC.

In one week, the national total excess deaths were 26% higher than the previous three year average.  But here’s where it gets interesting.  After that peak in the week ending 7/25/20, the “excess deaths” percent has been dropping from week to week.

Here’s the truly bizarre part:  Since 10/03/20, the total deaths have been LESS than the three previous years’ average — the time before the coronavirus hit.

In the week ending 10/17/20, the total U.S. deaths was BELOW the previous three year average.  That trend is continuing. The latest week is INCREDIBLY low, but I’d discount that last figure as there’s some lag in CDC getting all the figures.

While it’s just conjecture on my part, here’s two likely factors contributing to this dramatic drop in deaths:
1.  Our treatment of COVID-19 patients and how it works with related infirmities has been improving.  The WSJ ran an editorial that confirmed this point:

2.  PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT, it’s because the coronavirus has killed off a bunch of seriously ill seniors would would have normally died in August through October.  In other words, COVID-19 accelerated the death of some seniors who would have soon died anyway.

This latter probability is important when discussing perpetually locking down all of America.  The overwhelming COVID-19 threat is to seniors with existing health problems (such as myself).

Our pandemic problems are far from over.  The Spanish Flu disaster peaked in the winter following its spread in society.  We’ll likely see a significant uptick in COVID-19 deaths — the number of cases (people testing positive) is growing fairly rapidly.

But we need recognize that we can’t stay shut down forever. This virus seldom kills people under age 45.  It’s primarily a geezer disease.  The harm this lockdown has done to our economy and mental well-being is huge.

Arguably COVID-19 lockdowns are driving the Antifa violence.  The only time people can go out and let off steam (up to and including murder) is under the cover of “peaceful protests.”

Here’s the relevant CDC chart and URL:



Comments 5

  1. I’m very far from a conspiracy theorist but from what I know as a DOD contractor and what my political science degree (and history education ) tell me is clear. The Chinese Communist Party (CRP) and the Democratic Party have tacitly cooperated in placing us in our present situation. Doubt this at your peril. Remember, only the CCP and the Democrats have benefited from this.

  2. You’ve made a number of mistakes here.

    First, data reporting is not instantaneous. Recent weeks are incomplete data. Reporting on deaths during the most recent weeks will continue to come in for at least 2-3 weeks. If you want to see accurate and complete data, ignore the most recent three weeks.

    Second, don’t confuse predicted and threshold values. The threshold value for counting excess deaths from all causes is set at a high confidence interval to scrub noise from the data. The threshold value for counting excess deaths is therefore significantly higher than predicted deaths.

  3. This is just extremely late reporting I think. I’ve noticed this before.

    If you go back to the link you’ll notice that the numbers are still increasing in September compared to the snapshot you took.

  4. Post

    WC and Encinitas raised a good point. I mentioned it in my reporting. But I significantly underestimated the lag in the first three weeks.

    But reread my post. Look at the data. The number of COVID-19 related deaths compared with the “expected deaths” has been dropping almost every week since 7/25. Delayed reporting significantly affects (at most) only the last two-four weeks in such a data series.

    Moreover, check the latest figures. Based on the trend, we are now seeing zero excess deaths, and are crossing into negative territory.

  5. I’m still not seeing it. Every week of October is >100% of expected deaths (as November will surely be also when late reports come in). Yes, it’s lower than July-August, but that aligns with the wave of Covid cases.

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