SD Rostra

Lessons from 2010 Primary …..Whose Polls can you Trust?

In the last month before the June primary, Barry Jantz reported a poll showing a close race between Howard Wayne and Lorie Zapf in SD city council district 6.

Soon after, I reported on polling which showed Juan Vargas leading Mary Salas outside SD County and would likely win the 40th senate Democratic primary.

Barry Jantz took flack from some in the local MSM, who demanded documentation and sourcing on these polls. Barry replied that many posters here are political professionals and, as such, “hear” breaking info which doesn’t reach traditional media, and which are told us on the basis of no attribution.

That was true for Barry’s info about council district 6, and for me about the 40th senate primary. I determined my sources were reliable and wrote the story.

To put it charitably, these journalists were “skeptical” of our reports and put more stock in the favored Howard Wayne and Mary Salas.

……………………….Checking the Scoreboard

Both Lori Zapf and Juan Vargas won upset victories, but they were not surprises to SD Rostra readers and believers in Barry “the B-Dog” Jantz.

Barry’s prediction: Lorie Zapf was not just competitive, she won the primary by double digits, and heads to a Fall runoff with the “big Mo” against Howard Wayne.

Sills’ prediction: Juan Vargas did win outside S.D. County, while trailing here, but in the end he won his race with Mary Salas. OK, OK, it took a while for my prediction to get there, but even a 22-vote win is a win.

I hope this review of Rostra’s primary poll reporting is useful to our readers. But I’m also writing it so Barry Jantz can point to it, the next time someone questions insider Poll data reported on SD Rostra.

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