Guest Commentary
by Elliot Schroeder
But if push comes to shove and Obama has to get involved where would San Diego stand?
A brief background on Syria. The French artificially carved this nation from the Ottoman Empire. It cobbled competing ethnicities together not out of Western ignorance for the area but to prevent a single power from challenging French rule. These divisions required the competing groups to look to France to settle disputes. But with France gone a strongman had to fill that role and it eventually settled with Assad, a member of the Alawite minority that the French trained as an indigenous forces earlier.
With the Arab Spring revolts spreading across the Arab world, Syria has come undone. There are other factors involved including Iran’s attempts at a Persian arc from Tehran to the eastern Mediterranean but the bottom line is that Assad is losing power and Syria is in a civil war among its various factions. Obama has avoided overt involvement and has left a lot of the support activities to the powers in the region like Turkey and Saudi Arabia on the Sunni side and Iran backing Assad’s Alawites (a Shia offshoot). If Obama were to get involved he would undoubtedly look to Libya as example. As with Libya he would push local powers to lead and the US to provide high-end capabilities like intelligence and airpower (along with covert Special ops and the CIA on the ground). If he does this what is the political response?
The GOP is already split on its response. Neocons, most prominently being Senator John McCain, want intervention. They believe military intervention that leads to the building of democracies in the Mideast is the key to regional stability and keeping Israel safe. The Neo-Isolationists, best expressed by Rand Paul among others along with the Tea Party crowd, don’t want involvement at all. Previously, these Isolationist groups believed that America shouldn’t go beyond the seas that keep it safe. Today’s argument tends to have an economic tone. Iraq was too expensive and we can’t afford any further interventions because of the budget situation and our national debt.
But Obama’s own party is split into two sides. His faction is the Neo-Interventionists. This is the group is that tired of losing the foreign policy debate for the last 40 years and with Osama bin Laden’s killing, Obama was the first Democrat since Kennedy to lead on foreign policy approval in a presidential election. They don’t want to lose that new found credibility. This group pushes for limited strikes that show toughness but has never been vocal about defense build ups. They see Libya as the model to intervene effectively (but Libya is far from a solved situation).
The other side of the Democrats are the Hippies. Sorry no fancy name. They came to the fore with Vietnam and since Johnson they’ve dominated the Left’s defense policy. They believe in Nye’s “soft power” concept and generally think the military is too incompetent to achieve anything overseas. This mix of disdain for the military and disregard for the need to have military might back of diplomacy puts then in an odd position where they want humanitarian missions around the world but don’t realize these efforts are mostly ineffectual without military assistance. They may want the U.S. to help those suffering in Syria but they paradoxically don’t want troops on the ground to do it.
For the Defense Industry in San Diego, it would not benefit from an Obama led operation into Syria. The Libya template provides very limited support with assets on hands. Obama also put the defense cuts up as part of the sequester. He has no desire to boost military spending. Maintenance and replacement contracts may come in but no large orders to boost the force will come in. So the Defense sector in San Diego won’t see much of a boost.
Mideast activist groups in San Diego include a large Muslim population and an Arab Christian population. Although some remittances may go to Syria, neither of these groups have a personal interest in Syria. The Arab Christians are mostly Iraqi Chaldeans and the Muslims are predominantly Somali. I do not see San Diego’s groups getting too involved in this issue.
As for San Diego’s congressional representatives, the vote would fall to party lines. Darrell Issa opposed the Libya action as unconstitutional since Obama did it without asking Congress. Assuming Obama does the same, Issa would oppose it. On the other hand Duncan D. Hunter initially supported involvement in Libya but ultimately opposed Obama’s approach. With Obama likely to try the same approach with Syria I’d assume that Hunter would oppose involvement. Among the Democrats, Susan Davis seems to line up with Obama as a Neo-Interventionist. She voted NO on banning armed forces in Libya and will likely do the same.
The newcomers, Scott Peters and Juan Vargas are the question. Peters has been given amazing leeway on votes because the Democrats want him to stay competitive. With Coronado and other veterans in CA52 he will attempt a strong military position. La Jolla also possesses a large Jewish population and if there is the possibility that Israel is threatened he would support intervention to maintain their backing. My bet on Vargas is that he’d tow the line with the President. He’s part of the new Democrat crowd and the Neo-Interventionists are getting a stronger voice in the Democrat party. He wouldn’t challenge that.
# # #
Elliot Schroeder is a San Diego County native and graduate of West Point. He served as the Coalition Forces Land Component Command (CFLCC) Commanding General’s War Room Operations Officer during the invasion of Iraq (OIF1). He currently works as a Drone Program Manager in Poway.