GOP Mayoral Candidates Jump to the Front: Dumanis Fav Among Insiders, DeMaio Choice of the Electorate

Owen Kellogg Owen Kellogg 3 Comments


The Mayoral race has gotten off to a blistering pace: DeMaio, Fletcher, and now Filner are in; Faulconer is out.  Surprisingly, there is a swift and early movement to coalesce center-right establishment support behind Dumanis.  In just the last 36 hours Dumanis has received the endorsements of both Faulconer and Sanders. At the same time a SurveyUSA poll, sponsored by 10 News, shows DeMaio up substantially. He leads among every major demographic but women.

Although very early, the big loser so far is Fletcher.  After spending nearly a million dollars on his first two elections, he barely registers in this poll.  His announcement was trumped by DeMaio’s and the centrist community seems to be getting in line behind Dumanis.

Dumanis is a Republican but has come out against pension reform, has a Democrat consultant, and is cozy with certain sets of labor.  She seems to be positioning to be the centrist in the race.  DeMaio has been the hawk on everything fiscal and is the poster boy of “Reform”.  He is clearly the conservative.  At the same time, Fletcher seems to be in Republican no man’s land, unable (or unwilling) to take a stance on anything controversial and stuck in single digits in polling.

So the real question is…where does Fletcher go from here? Does Fletcher really think this is an election year where the tagline “A New Generation of Leadership” will sell if he shows absolutely no leadership on any of the controversial issues?

What say you?


Comments 3

  1. I love how you claim that Fletcher is “stuck” in single digits in polling, implying that there has been more than one poll and his numbers have been stagnant and unmoving.

    We’re a year away from election day. I doubt anyone in the Fletcher camp is looking at a small sample size poll of registered (read: NOT “likely”) voters and wondering “Where do we go from here? The sky is falling and all is lost.”

  2. Post


    You’re right that it is a year out and that this is too early to truly accurately predict the winner. But that dismissal does not dismiss the validity of the underlying question. Where does Fletcher go from here? He appears to be lacking traction from the insider class that Dumanis has and at the same time is in single digits, even though he has spent much more on campaigns in recent years than DeMaio. Both Dumanis and DeMaio stand for something. Fletcher has a slogan but currently no substance.

    Team Fletcher may not be concerned about that, but if I were being asked for money by him I sure would be.

  3. Again, I’ll point out that “traction” implies the lack of movement, and one poll with some interesting sampling does not allow for that. If after several polls and months of active campaigning multiple polls show single digit placement for Fletcher, then I think you can infer “traction.”

    Until then, it’s obvious we disagree on the substance of the candidates, so I will just agree to disagree.

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