In a few hours we may know the fate of Nathan Fletcher’s political career.
Can a political chameleon convince enough voters to back him, whether or not they can be sure of his politics?
There has been a lot of talk of “drinking the Kool-Aid” when it comes to Fletcher’s supporters. I know several individuals I would describe as being in that camp. The real question: What is it that draws people to him? Charm? Charisma? Striking good looks? The ability to sound visionary?
The reality of Nathan Fletcher is that he truly is an enigma.
There’s a good chance Fletcher will not make the run off in the mayor’s race, mostly because he has never really been battle tested when it comes to politics. After today he will have been involved in six elections, with a 66 percent success rate. That sounds pretty good until you really look at four of those elections being a virtual free ride.
Fletcher ran in 2008 for the open seat in the 75th Assembly District, which was being vacated by Assembly Member George Plescia due to term-limits. To his credit, he was able to clear the field by raising a lot in campaign funds and impressing people as an energetic, good-looking rock-ribbed conservative. This allowed him to win a legislative seat without really being tested. Sure, he had a Democratic opponent in the 2008 and 2010 general elections, but it was a significant Republican district. Those opponents had virtually no chance of beating any Republican candidate regardless of the name.
Whether Fletcher’s legislative career was good or bad — there’s been enough on that subject. His career may not have been any different than most legislators, other than he was better at self-promotion than the majority of in Sacramento.
Fast forward to the 2012 race for San Diego mayor. Fletcher, a life-long Republican, decides he wants to run. He jumps in the race feet first, running as a Republican and a proud one at that. Everything was fine until the day of the San Diego County Republican Party endorsement meeting. His main opponent had worked hard and early to garner the support of the party membership, while Fletcher seemed to think he could waltz in and woo the crowd into the endorsement, charm and charisma alone.
It turns out the Fletcher magic didn’t work and the party decided to endorse Carl DeMaio.
So Fletcher decides to take his ball and go home, in the midst of the campaign changing parties and becoming an Independent. Yet, that didn’t work out too well and he ended up losing in the mayoral primary.
When the San Diego mayor’s office again became “in play,” Fletcher saw an opportunity but knew he couldn’t win without being in one of the two major parties. With bridges obliterated on the GOP side, he made the move to the Democrats, many of those in the leadership accepted him with open arms — partly because of his dynamic personality, partly because he was a defector from the other side and had “seen the light.”
The reality is that it was all ego driven. Fletcher is about Fletcher, not issues or sides.
Anyone who has been involved with him at a serious level can tell you one thing –- Fletcher desires to run for Governor and President one day. Certainly anyone wanting to be President probably has a bit of an ego, but usually they have the background to back it up based on a long track record of service to their country in other elected or appointed offices.
Fletcher, in his passion to fulfill his dream, ignored sound political advice and proceeded quickly based on his goal of much higher office down the road. He had a dream and a timeline. It was his destiny.
It could have been, had he not been so immature about his political career. Many believe that had Fletcher simply taken his lumps after losing the Republican endorsement last year, he would now be sitting in the position that Kevin Faulconer now holds as the mayoral front runner. It is likely the field would have been cleared, as Fletcher would have been able to garner votes from both sides. Faulconer is a careful candidate and is not prone to taking chances, so it is likely he would have sat this one out without fairly universal Republican and business support. Either way, Fletcher had a great chance of being the nominee on the Republican side, non-partisan election or not.
But, that is what could have been. Let’s deal with today. Fletcher is a Democrat without a record. There are many in Dem power circles that like him, but the rank and file San Diego County Democratic Party membership and progressive Labor Council leadership did not trust the recent flip from one side to the other, instead deciding to go with someone in whom they had the faith of shared beliefs – Councilmember David Alvarez. This is completely understandable — most individuals involved in political parties can spot opportunism when they see it.
There is little question had Fletcher just parked himself at Qualcomm for a few years, become involved in the local Democratic Party and established himself as truly one of them, he would have many opportunities to run for office including the mayors race in 2020.
Yet his ego and political immaturity got in the way and now instead of being the front runner for either party, he is sitting in the middle of the road, possibly about to be run over by a truck driven by the electorate.
Will Fletcher have a political future? Maybe, but it will require him to grow up politically and realize he does not have a manifest destiny to become Governor or President. Those are titles that you earn.