There were two dramatic sprints in the 2005 SD mayoral primary. (1) First-time candidate Jerry Sanders came out of the blocks flying. With a launch expertly orchestrated by Tom Shepard, the former Police Chief was suddenly everywhere, notably with an integrated Plan for reform of City finances. As the “Datamar”/Raul Furlong poll of June 13 showed, Sanders zoomed to 34% of the vote in a single month ! (2) But beginning in late June, businessman Steve Francis put on the 2nd surge, with well done TV and radio ads, articulating a conservative, get tough approach to improving the City’s fiscal position. In a 2nd installment, Raul Furlong shows us where Sanders and Francis built their voter bases.
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by Raul Furlong
Four Days To Go – July 21 Poll.
“The overall support received by the candidates in the July 21 poll, showed a dramatic change from the June 13 poll. While Frye showed almost no change, Jerry Sanders had dropped from 34.1% to 26.1%, and Steve Francis went from 3.1% to 25%. He had moved almost even with Jerry Sanders at 26.1%. His massive multi-media expenditures were showing results.
The Republicans had shifted considerably their support for all the candidates. Donna Frye’s Republican support dropped by more than two-third to 8.2%, Sanders support increased by 10% to 38.1%. Steve Francis, the Conservative Republican, was succesful in attracting the plurality of Republican votes and passed the more moderate Republican Sanders with support from 42.3% of the Republican vote.
The Non-partisans: Donna Frye was the clear winner of the non-partisan voter with 55.6%. Jerry Sanders (22.2 %) strategy of declaring himself as a moderate Republican was succesful in outperforming Steve Francis (9.6 %) with the non-partisan voters.
The Democrats: Frye increased her support to 66.7% with Democratic voters , Sanders dropped in Democratic support to from 35% to 14.6%, and Francis rose from 4.9% support to 10.4%.”
…DAY BY DAY TRACKING … THE LAST 4 DAYS…. IN OUR 3RD INSTALLMENT
With Steve Francis now on Jerry Sanders’ shoulder, the special Mayoral primary campaign entered its final 4 days, running up to the July 26th vote. In a concluding 3rd chapter, pollster Raul Furlong will show us what happened next, with implications that continue to resound today in 2011.
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(The July 21 poll results above reflect completed interviews with a sample of 1,130 high propensity registered voters in the City of San Diego).