The “Great” Rostra/FlashReport San Diego General Election Contest

Barry Jantz Barry Jantz


It’s that time again, peeps! Show us your political prognosticating prowess. The contest all the poli-hacks have been awaiting. At least that’s what some tell me, even if they don’t admit it to anyone else.

As a reminder, Christine Moore won the primary contest, in the most competitive finish yet. She hasn’t yet collected on the meal, but we haven’t yet connected at the same Albondigas lunch — my fault. Yet, I am good for it. Trust me.

A reminder of the “rules,” if that’s what you call some of these…

  • Read the questions closely.  No tricks, just read the questions.
  • Send your guesses to ONLY. The highly-paid Rostra staffers are assisting on this, so don’t send to my email. As well, do NOT post your answers here.
  • Deadline to submit guesses: Election Day — Tuesday, November 6, 2012 — High Noon. No exceptions. That’s Pacific Time.
  • If you’re reading this on FlashReport and don’t follow San Diego politics, don’t complain. Just DON’T ANSWER. Free to Choose and all that.
  • I can’t ask about every race. Don’t take it personally.
  • In the case of any close races, the contest winner may not be determined until the Registrar of Voters and/or litigants are done with their work. See 2000.

The Questions:

1. San Diego Unified School District — Does Prop Z WIN or LOSE?

Simply NAME the WINNER in each of the following races:

2. San Diego City Council District 1 — Ray Ellis or Sherri Lightner?

3. County Supervisor District 3 — Steve Danon or Dave Roberts?

4. State Senate, District 39 — Marty Block or George Plescia?

5. Congress, District 52 — Brian Bilbray or Scott Peters?

6. State Assembly, District 76 — Rocky Chavez or Sherry Hodges?

7. Superior Court Judge, Office 25 — Robert Amador or Jim Miller?

8. Oceanside Mayor — Jerry Kern or Jim Wood?

9. San Diego Mayor — Carl DeMaio or Bob Filner?

The next one gets a tad more complicated. Or, maybe not.

10. Congress, District 53 — Susan Davis (D) vs. Nick Popaditch (R), AND State Assembly, District 79 — Mary England (R) vs. Shirley Weber (D). Regardless of the names and races, what combination of party make-up wins in these two match-ups, BOTH REPUBLICANS, BOTH DEMOCRATS, or ONE OF EACH. Your answer should be one of the three options shown in caps.

Based on the questions above, I’m anticipating the definite need for some tie-breakers, so we’ll go three rounds, if needed:

Tie-Breaker A (only if needed).  School Bonds — There are eleven local school bond or bond re-authorization measures on the ballot in San Diego County, each requiring 55 percent of the vote to pass (here’s the list). Specific measures don’t matter in your answer, but will a MAJORITY of these measures PASS or FAIL?

Tie-Breaker B (only if still needed). State Measures — Regardless of whether each passes or fails, which will garner the HIGHEST percentage in YES votes, Prop 30 or Prop 38? Cite WHICH one will do the BEST.

Tie-Breaker C (only if still, still needed).  San Diego Mayor — Pick the exact DIFFERENCE in PERCENTAGE of the vote between Carl DeMaio and Bob Filner. Order of finish and individual percentages don’t matter. The DIFFERENCE between the two is what is being asked. (You might do well here to guess to a tenth of a point; you never know.)

That’s it.  Ten questions; a dead heat in the number of correct answers results in a tie breaking question, another tie breaker if still needed, with one more if needed after the first two.

Re-read the rules above if it helps.  Find the list of candidates here.

The winner gets a meal on me, at an Albondigas luncheon, as well as bragging rights.

Reposted from 10/26/12