Tuesday, June 19 — After yesterday’s update from the Registrar…
SCOTT SHERMAN |
15542 |
50.16% |
MAT KOSTRINSKY |
12447 |
40.17% |
RIK HAUPTFELD |
1791 |
5.78% |
NATHAN E. JOHNSON |
1207 |
3.90% |
As of yesterday morning, 112 ballots were left to count. The race was over a week ago, per the below, but this confirms the current numbers.
Tuesday, June 12 — after 5 pm update from the Registrar of Voters…
But, starting with my tweet at 4:26 pm:
“Prediction: Out of about 30,150 votes, @ShermanforSD will have 50.25%, about 75 votes more than the 50 mark.”
Then, after the Registrar released the updated results, from the U-T San Diego’s Jen Kuhney, who had it first at 5:00 pm:
“Latest results: Sherman 50.3%, Kostrinsky 40.17%. Almost all of D7 ballots counted, but there could be a few more, RoV said.”
Then, Kuhney at 5:12 pm:
“ShermanforSD now 91 votes over runoff after latest results.”
So, I guess I was off by 16 votes. Toot toot.
The bottom line is this: The Registrar’s website still shows thousands of uncounted ballots countywide. But, as is often the case in close contests, the count focused on Council District 7 the last two days so as to knock off the bulk of those ballots. There are only a handful of ballots left in this race.
If, for instance, there were even 100 left, Sherman has the count locked up, for all intents and purposes.
A tidbit: Sherman received about 55 percent of today’s ballots.
Currently:
SCOTT SHERMAN |
15206 |
50.30% |
MAT KOSTRINSKY |
12145 |
40.17% |
RIK HAUPTFELD |
1727 |
5.71% |
NATHAN E. JOHNSON |
1155 |
3.82% |
_______________
Original Monday (June 11) post…
Following last Tuesday’s hotly contested San Diego City Council election for District 7, interest was piqued over the weekend when Friday’s count of late absentee and provisional ballots showed front-runner Scott Sherman’s portion of the vote tally slipping from about 51 percent to 50.59 percent.
With about 88,000 votes left to count across the county, it’s unclear what proportion of those remaining ballots are in the City of San Diego or even the 7th District, for that matter.
Yet, what’s clear is that it takes at least 50 percent plus one vote to secure an outright victory in the primary. With Sherman’s margin at last count heading towards that magic 50 number – even if only for a day or two — twitter recently sprang to life with a few self-annointed mathematicians, including yours truly (although I’d say I’m more of a wannabe in the arithmetic department than an anointed one).
The second place finisher in the primary race, Mat Kostrinsky, has no chance of catching Sherman, since he’s trailing by more than 10 points. Yet, political watchers know if Sherman falls below 50 percent, a forced top-two finisher run-off with Kostrinsky in November is a different day, with what will be a much larger turnout than the likely plus thirty percent achieved last Tuesday (the 27 percent turnout initially reported is also going up as the outstanding ballots are counted).
With four Democratic and three Republican city council seats assured, it would be a bit of an understatement to say the balance of power rests with this race and the District 1 runoff between Ray Ellis and Sherri Lightner. The difference between a 6-3, or 5-4 leaning-one-way-or-the-other council makeup matters greatly when measuring both majority council votes and mayoral veto thresholds, especially also eying a Carl DeMaio and Bob Filner mayoral ho-down.
That said, it’s a busy Monday at the Registrar of Voters office, with both Kostrinsky and Sherman partisans on hand ensuring the quality and accuracy of the ballot counting process. If there were still chad, these nice folks would be hanging on every one.
So, what are the odds Sherman falls below the mark? Inquiring minds want to know.
Local policy and statistical wonk Erik Bruvold did an analysis, indicating that if the remaining 88,000 ballots are proportionally distributed geographically, Sherman would have to get less than 47 percent of the approximate 5,165 remaining District 7 votes to end up with less than 50 percent of the overall vote. He says on Twitter, “No interim updates have shown him pulling less than that,” while also noting that since prior vote counts can be treated as samples, none of them show Sherman under 47 percent. “(It’s a) low chance this one would be,” referring to the last uncounted ballots.
Bruvold also mentions, “It’s a fun exercise in probability math.”
Speak for yourself, dude.
Another ballot count update is anticipated from the Registrar of Voters late today.
Political operatives — and mathematicians — will be watching closely.
______
Monday 5 pm Update: The ROV counted approximately 62,000 votes countywide since the Friday update, leaving about 26,000 votes to count. Sherman’s vote total dropped from 50.59 to 50.19 percent. Someone else do the rest of the math. Erik Bruvold?
SCOTT SHERMAN |
14827 |
50.19% |
MAT KOSTRINSKY |
11925 |
40.37% |
RIK HAUPTFELD |
1664 |
5.63% |
NATHAN E. JOHNSON |
1124 |
3.81% |