“New Way” Republican Rocky Chavez and conservative Republican Diane Harkey are the only two declared Republican candidates in the 49th Congressional District election to replace Congressman Darrell Issa. That has former Republican and now Democratic activist, Will Rodriguez-Kennedy worried:
That means that if Republicans field two solid candidates that could yield a split in their vote (as Rocky Chavez and Diane Harkey definitely could) and Democrats do the same on their side (definitely likely) that means this could end up a Republican on Republican race that ends up shutting out Democrats. That’s why it is time for the Democratic candidates in the 49th Congressional District to make a hard choice.
With Doug Applegate’s name recognition and progressive excitement and Sara Jacobs’ well financed and rapidly growing campaign (she is likely to out raise all of her opponents check the FEC reports at the end of the month) we could have two Democrats who could not only win but SHUT OUT Republicans in the general election.This may very well be the ONLY way to win this race.
Kennedy’s fear is well-founded. A field of 4-6 Democratic candidates might split the vote so that none of the candidates could earn more than 25% of the vote; I expect both Chavez and Harkey to win that percentage. Levin has raised a bunch of money as will Sara Jacobs. Applegate came close to winning the seat last cycle. I can’t see any of them dropping out. Add attorney Christina Prejean and wealthy real estate investor Paul Kerr to the field, and Kennedy’s worst nightmare could come true.
Kennedy is young but he’s a smart political guy. He started his life as a Republican so he knows how we think. He has over 8 years or so, involved in local politics on both sides of the aisle and, while he doesn’t live in North County, he knows how to read voter registration reports. Moreover, he know that the egos in this race are likely to shut his party out of the general election. This is fantastic news for the Republican Party UNLESS…
…the same thing happens on our side of the aisle.
Right now we have two contrasting Republicans running for Congress: one who believes in higher taxes and regulations and one who believes that Americans are taxed and regulated too much. While Chavez is no “tax and spend liberal”, he is a statist. While Harkey is no libertarian, she believes in the primacy of the individual over the State. This is the kind of contest I’ve wanted to see for years and, considering the egos involved on the Democratic side, we are probably going to see it, UNLESS….
…the same thing happens on our side of the aisle.
I talked about potential candidates when Congressman Issa last week: only Brough, Horn and Gaspar were considering a run as of the end of last week. Brough can do a lot of good in the Assembly and could potentially run to replace Pat Bates. Gaspar could hold that Supervisor’s seat for 7 more years, a seat which wields lots of power and is a 9-5 gig with an office a Coaster ride from her home. An entry from Bill Horn could do damage to what should end up being an R on R runoff. Neither of them can win and either entry would ruin the chance for a Republican runoff.
Add Horn to the mix and the electoral math gets dicey, He has name recognition as a Supervisor but he damned near lost his last election to Oceanside Mayor Jim Wood. He has NO name recognition in Orange County, He’s a Marine veteran so that could knock Chavez. percentage below 20%. His conservative credentials are such that he could knock Harkey’s percentage down from San Diego County (Harkey is the perfect fit for the South Orange County, business-friendly center-right crowd).
If Horn, Gaspar, and Brough entered the race, not one Republican would earn higher than 20% of the vote and, if Kennedy’s plea to the Democrats resonated, it could be Jacobs and Applegate in the November general. At this point, an entry from any one of those candidates ruins the chance for two Republicans in the general election and potentially opens the door for two Democrats in the general election.
That would be a complete disaster for this right-leaning District.