From 10News, in case you missed it…
“…in the new poll released Tuesday, Gore had 26 percent of the vote — up 12 points from November … showed former Undersheriff and Assemblyman Jay La Suer at 16 percent, which was unchanged from November. Sheriff’s Lieutenant Jim Duffy, who led the race in November, is at 15 percent — down nine percent.”
More here:
http://www.10news.com/news/23285829/detail.html
Thoughts:
- 10News calls this lead by Gore “substantial.” Ten points with margins of error and nearly forty percent undecided is substantial? Funny.
- Gore may have an uphill battle trying to pull this thing out with fifty percent plus one in June.
- The determination that Duffy can’t use a law enforcement ballot designation (he will use chief of staff) is extremely significant now, especially considering the Deputy Sheriffs Association won’t be spending money to benefit his effort.
- This spells the real possibility of an upset, with La Suer making it into a runoff with Gore.
- Watch for the undecideds to slide towards those with a law enforcement background listed on the ballot, meaning Gore and La Suer.
- Trouble for Duffy.
- The poll has Bruce Ruff at four percent…why the heck are they polling a name not in the race? (Question, not a thought — same guys doing the poll that call the lead “substantial”?)
- If Gore’s internal tracking shows him not being able to win it in June, watch for him to blast Duffy, not La Suer. For discussion below: Why do I think that?