Current CA “happy talk” based on wrong unemployment stat
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RIDER COMMENT: Below is an insightful column from my HJTA friend Jon Coupal. Two points stand out:
1. The recent happy talk about the recovering jobs picture in CA was based on the lower state unemployment percentage. But a closer look shows that this reduction is simply a drop in people looking for work — more and more have stopped looking. Indeed, in the last “improving” CA jobs report, the actual NUMBER of California jobs DROPPED 3,800.
2. Regardless what happens in DC, the thing we Californians should be watching is how our state performs this year compared to the more tax and business friendly states. If we lag in the recovery while they continue to perform better, we can’t blame that disparity on federal policies (though the CA Dems will try with all their might).
HOWARD JARVIS TAXPAYERS ASSOCIATION
More Happy Talk
December 30, 2012
by Jon Coupal
A few weeks ago, this column addressed all the “happy talk” coming from both our elected representatives and the news media about how California had finally turned the corner on our economic woes and we are now in full recovery mode. Continuing our role as official California curmudgeons, we suggested that the facts didn’t paint quite the rosy picture that Governor Brown and his fans would have us believe.
Today we note, more regretfully than gleefully, that recent reports suggest our pessimism is well founded.
Just before Christmas, Santa seemingly gave California a shiny new present, wrapped in lovely decorative paper that contained the following headline: “California Unemployment Rate Dips Below 10%, to 9.8%.” Such a wonderful gift indeed! But the contents of the present didn’t quite match the lovely packaging. The fact is that actual payrolls in California dropped by 3,800 jobs. In most media reports, that fact was buried further down in the story.
Moreover, one of the assumptions upon which the prediction of California’s recovery was based is resolution of the “fiscal cliff” standoff in Washington. As of this writing (and things could change) it looks like we may indeed go cliff diving. And even if we don’t, it appears that the deal being put together at the federal level may, at best, just kick the can down the road.
Either way, President Obama has already made it clear he will blame the Republicans for anything and everything that goes wrong with the economy. So what else is new? The question we have is whether the majority party here in California will similarly blame Republicans at the federal level if their repeated predictions of recovery don’t come to pass. They probably will. But here is where things can get interesting.
Let’s assume that, for whatever reason, California slips back into recession. Will the same occur in those states that have a more friendly tax and regulatory climate? In November, red states became more red and blue states became more blue. And nowhere did a state become more blue than in California.
So if federal policies are to blame, then won’t all states suffer more or less equally? But if states like Texas, Utah, Florida, Indiana and Nevada flourish while California stumbles, won’t that say a lot more about California’s policies than it does about federal policies?
Indeed, those of us who believe that the hostility toward taxpayers and businesses here in California will continue to inflict damage to our economy have an obligation to make the comparisons between the states in order to convince voters of all political stripes that California deserves better.
So for the New Year, let’s watch very carefully what happens between Illinois and Indiana; Texas and California; Virginia and Maryland. Each of these pairings reflect states with roughly similar demographics but each reflects one state that supports policies of economic growth and one that does not.
This could be very helpful in swaying voters in future elections. And it is something that can even make us curmudgeons optimistic.
Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association — California’s largest grass-roots taxpayer organization dedicated to the protection of Proposition 13 and the advancement of taxpayers’ rights.