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Archive for the ‘Jim Sills’ Category

It was a good primary for Republicans, and for Jim Lacy, whose “Landslide Communications” ruled the Slate Card roost again.  Slates are popular with most candidates and consultants because they are a relatively inexpensive way to reach numerous  likely voters.  It is not just a business to Jim Lacy,  however, a committed philosophical conservative who served in the Reagan Adminsitration, was National Chairman of Young Americn for Freedom, and  close associate of Howard Jarvis during the legendary Proposition 13 campaign of 1978.  Congratulations to Jim for another successful election cycle.

 

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Where is GWEN?

Thursday, June 7, 2012
posted by Jim Sills

Rostrafarians were entertained/vexed  in recent weeks by longtime Gadfly “Gwen”.  She predicted, with supreme confidence, that we’d all get our come-uppance  June 5th as SD Liberal candidates rolled to victory after victory.  She pitied our naive hopes.  But since Election Day, she has gone Radio Silent.  What happened,  Gwen?

Here are my Nominees for  Biggest Upsets in the June 2012 San Diego primary.  Readers are invited to add more names or causes with your comments….

(1)  Mark Powell  SD City Schools, Seat A.  A late entrant who proved that a solid, fact-based message is what voters hunger for.  Powell (R)  leads incumbent John Evans (D)  9,961 votes  to 9,915.  A citywide runoff race will follow.

(2)  Mary England (R) 79th Assembly. With limited resources, Lemon Grove’s councilwoman got her  message out, leading  a 6-candidate field most of the night. Consultant John Hoy did stellar work for her.  She now faces Shirley Weber (D) in the Fall.

Greetings, Politics Fans.  The numbers you saw at 8:05 pm last night  represented  45% of all  the primary votes to be counted in SD County.  These nfigures  reveal  the Contour of what is happening, and for Republicans  it is  GOOD  almost wherever you look.    George Plescia running  even with Marty Block (SD 39) , Mark Powell  leading the Dist. A City schools  incumbent, Judge candidadtes Jim Miller Jr. and Gary Kreep  both in cliffhangers,  Scott Sherman, Ray Ellis and Brian Bilbray all in 1st place.  And Mary England’s spectacular triumph in AD 79 .   YES, the scheduled “Wave  has arrived courtesy of the Big Kahuna  (Tony Krvaric)  and many other GOP surfers, Ho-Dads and gremmies.  Stay stoked, Dudes.

There is often, though now always, a “swing” in the final 72 hours of a campaign.  San Diego mail ballots of Sunday and Monday suggest it is happening now.  When Rostra’s reports began May 21st, the GOP mail edge was 41% to 39%.  Later daily returns moved to 43-38, then to 45-38, then 46-37 (on Sunday) and finally to 47%-35% on Monday.  Movement in the Late Absentees often indicates where Election Day voters are trending.  WHERE WILL IT IMPACT?  Down-ballot races feel a maximum effect.  They may include:  Mark Powell (School Board), George Plescia (SD 39), Brian Bilbray (CD 52), Ray Ellis & Scott Sherman (city council).  If you see most of these & other candidates do better than foreseen, this will be a significant reason.

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Sunday, June 3 countywide data reveals mail ballots now trend 43.7% GOP, outperforming the 35.2% of registration by 8.5%.  Democrats are also ahead, but by only 3.0% (38.3  vs.  35.3%).  Net result is the +12,879 overall GOP mail ballot lead shown in the chart.  When Rostra began following this on May 21, the Rep. lead was just  2 points (41-39).  Now it has topped 5 points  (43.7 to 38.3).  That GOP trend reached a one-day high on Sunday (46.3%  to 36.8).  Mail ballots will comprise over 60% of total primary votes cast.  Republicans are Closing Strong in this vital group.

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Nearly 50,000 new voted ballots arrived on Friday and Saturday, making a new grand total of just over 225,000 countywide.  Those recent 50K divided GOP 22,240 (45%), Dem  18,944 (38%), Independent 6,609  (13%) and Minor parties 1,539 (3%).  The new overall countywide totals are Republican 97,834,  Democratic 86,451, Indys 32,125 , and 8,513 minor party. These figures convey the party affiliation of those voting by mail. No one will know how they voted until after 8:00 p.m. Tuesday night. The hard work of Tony Krvaric, GOP candidates, Volunteers clubs (esp. Republican Women Federated) is shown in these totals.  Well done to all!

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Multiple reliable local sources tell me that (1) the approximately 3,000 overseas military ballots from San Diego County were mailed out in time for the June primary election, and (2) that when about 30 of those came back with expired addresses, the Registrar of Voters office found updated addresses and re-sent those by Fed-Ex  (“They Deliver”).  The litigation referred to an earlier post involved mainly Federal and  State governments.  The “story” it then linked to, specifically refers to a government-supplied press release.  Today’s Rostra story is based on Independent reporting and multiple sources.  I believe those sources.

How did successful, well-qualified conservative attorney Gary George Kreep get a  ’not qualified’ rating from a panel of  a  local  attorneys Association reviewing candidates for Judge?  POSSIBLE  ANSWER : public records show the three-person panel assigned to interview Kreep are All Democrats, and ALL past Democrat donors (to Senator John Edwards (!), the Democratic National Committee, California Democratic Party, etc)!  Gary Kreep graduated USD’s famously tough law school with a Juris Doctor in 1975, by the way.

…..GARY KREEP’S PANEL PROFILE

To avoid personalizing things, I’m not going to name the Judicial Evaluators who initially interviewed Kreep, but will refer to them only as Evaluator 1, Evaluator 2 and Evaluator 3.  Here is what the public record shows about their political history.  Rostra readers are invited to evaluate - the – evaluators for potential biases as they read.

Here is your “controversial” SD County mail ballot report for today. The pace of returned ballots  zoomed Wednesday as 29,003 Memorial Day weekend votes descended on the Registrar of Voters office.  That brings the grand  total received to 175,591. The most recent split is Rep 45.1% (13,105), Dem 37.8% (10,953), Indy 13.8% (3,985), and Minor 3.3% (960). Compared to registration, Republicans are now  “outperforming”  by 7.9% (that is, 35.2% of registration vs. 43.1% of ballots), Democrats are +3.1  (35.3 reg, 38.4% ballots). But Independents lag by -9.3%  (23.8 reg, 14.5 ballots). In close races, that growing  7.9% GOP surge can make the difference for legislature, city councils, school boards,  county supervisors.   Well done to Tony Krvaric, and to Republican Women Federated, GOP Clubs and GOP candidates.

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Who says  Rocky Chavez  stood up to Big Labor as an Oceanside City Councilman (2002  through 2009) on issues like out-sourcing, size of government, and Prevailing Wage?   Well, the San Diego Labor Council effectively  says so (!)  in its new “Voter Guide”.   The mailing cites those issues and says “Vote NO on Rocky Chavez”  and GOP congressman Brian Bilbray.  ”Rocky Chavez is the wrong way for North County,” declares the Labor Council.   It seems safe to say, then, that Col. Rocky Chavez (USMC, ret.) “Walked the Walk”  as an Oceanside councilman  and could  be counted on to do the same  in  Sacramento  if elected a  State Assemblyman.

We have a fairly steady pattern now as Mail Ballots arrive.  Tuesday the 29th  was typical:   Republicans 46%  (3,721) of 8,110 processed,  Democrats 38% (3,084),  Independents 15%  (1,156).  The initial early returns (of 2 weeks ago) were at 41%  GOP - 39% Dem, but later ballots are averaging  GOP 45%,  Dem  38%.   Both major parties are above their registration share, but  Republicans out-perform registration by 7.4%   (35.2% reg,  42.6% of mail ballots) while  Democrats are + 3.2%  (35.3% reg,  38.5 mail).    Independent/ DTS  is big  Loser at  -9.1 %   (23.8 reg,  14.7% votes).  This has been true locally since the 1970s, and confirms their greater alienation/ or lack  of interest.  The Chart above shows running Count for ALL mail ballots to date.   THANKS to Registrar Deborah Seiler and Staff for Trusting the Public with the Truth.   YES,  we can handle it!   :)

The Beat Goes On …. Most recent 7,692  SD county mail ballots divide 45% GOP (3,483),   38%  Demo (2,940),  14% Independent (1,012) and 4% Minor parties (257) .   The running Rep. lead is +  5,298  overall countywide.   And Yes, they do work holiday weekends at the Registrar of Voters.  Now that is Dedication.  Happy Memorial Day weekend. Our Democracy survives thanks to those who risked everything for our Country. THANK YOU, Veterans.

Another 16,829 mail ballots were processed Friday and registered  Republicans made up  46% of them, while 37%  were Democratic.  Those numbers were 43-38  Republican on Thursday, and 41-39 GOP on Monday.  The countywide Republican  lead in the total running count is now + 4,755 mail ballots.  This clear trend suggests the famous “enthusiam Gap” of 2010  is alive and well.  Republicans are more tuned-in and motivated so far in 2012 than Democrats or Independents in SD county.   ” Indys” were  14% on Friday,  vs. their 24% of local registration.

The SD Registrar has processed another 24,561 mail ballots since SD Rostra’s last report, and registered Republicans (43.2%) outnumber Democrats (38.5%) within that cohort.  The overall GOP lead is up  from +2,154 on Monday to + 3,286 on Thursday.  And the GOP share of all mail ballots (42%)  is now 7 points higher than its registration share (35%).   Votes-by-Mail are expected to be 60% or more of  June primary ballots, so this trend  is significant.

……CAN  THIS  REALLY  AFFECT  KEY  RACES ?

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With public opinion tilting against public employee unions, the California Republican Party says D7 council candidate Mat Kostrinsky (D) does not want voters to know of his career interlude with the influential local SEIU chapter.  And a check of the Biography Page at Kostrinsky’s campaign website  does not mention the SEIU.  SEIU press releases or agendas from Local 221 identify Kostrinsky as an SEIU official here in 2010 and again here in 2007 .

Among the first 89,223 Mail Ballots returned to the SD Registrar of Voters, registered Republicans (36,986) have taken a 2,154 ballot lead over Democrats (34,832), replicating a trend SD Rostra first noted in 2010.  The GOP zooms from 35.2 % of registration, to 41.3 % of ballots received as of May 21st.  This may assauge the whining  concerns some critics directed at GOP Chairman Tony Krvaric.  So far it appears his  mail, phone, and door-to-door campaigns for the San Diego GOP are working just fine!  This  “tide” should aid  Steve Danon, George Plescia, Mary England,  Scott Sherman, Ray Ellis, Carl DeMaio, and other GOP-endorsed  candidates, as it did Lorie Zapf, Bill Horn and Ron Roberts in 2010.

Last week, Tom Fuentes was holding court in a quiet corner of San Diego’s Republican state convention. For 20 years (1984-2004) he chaired the Orange County GOP, and was arguably the most-influential County GOP chair in California’s long history.

Ronald Reagan, George Deukmejian, Pete Wilson and dozens of congressmen and state legislators relied on both his power and good counsel. But Tom Fuentes did not want to talk about himself last week. ”Where’d you go to college?,” “What does that flag lapel pin mean?,” “What’s your boss doing?” The guy who has done everything in politics made each person gathered around him that day feel they were important and worthy of his respect.

If you believe the SD Mayoral end-game is now whether Carl DeMaio will face (A) Bob Filner or (B) Nathan Fletcher in a November runoff,  here is additional evidence.  The politically adept COPE committee of AFT Local 1931 sent this mailer, presumably to persuade registered Democrats not to back Mr. Fletcher for Mayor… complete with a Groucho Marx mask!  The mailing promotes Bob Filner for Mayor on another panel.

COPE  stands for Committee on Political EducationAFT is short for American Federation of Teachers, in this case Local 1931, according to the printed disclosure on this interesting piece.

The roughest fights are often primary races,  and here are the two toughest mail pieces I’ve seen in 2012.  Scott Peters’ campaign accuses Lori Saldana of being a big business lap dog, voting for “tax giveaways” after taking corporate-paid travel (as a state legislator) to Rio De Janeiro,  Germany and Argentina, with luxury hotels and “personal butlers.”    Saldana talks tough on limiting corporate power, Peters’ mail suggests, but she really represents “Pay to Play.”

Saldana’s  comparison piece says Mr. Peters is amulti-millionaire corporate attorney” who wants to cut Social Security and Medicare, is responsible for San Diego’s Pension crisis, and won’t release his tax returns either.

Channel 10 News and polling firm Survey USA just released a new Mayoral Poll and their conclusion is that “Carl DeMaio appears to have locked-up one of two runoff spots … with a fierce fight for the second runoff position … On Monday, Council member DeMaio gets 31%, Nathan Fletcher and Rep. Bob Filner tie for the second runoff spot, each with 21%.  Bonnie Dumanis is further back.”

VOTES  BY  MAIL … Among the 12% of respondents who have already voted by mail, results are:  DeMaio 37%,  Filner 20%, Fletcher 16%, Dumanis 16%.

Here is the solid mail piece sent this week by the SD County Democratic Party, a “member communication” effort to aid Bob Filner’s campaign with rank-and-file Democratic voters. It hits most of the familiar themes which should appeal to the voters affected.  One word of advice to my conservative and libertarian friends who underestimate candidate Bob Filner … Don’t.  His own party has taken the field, and the forces of organized labor are almost certain to follow.  If they can motivate the base to turn out, there are enough votes to propel him to a runoff.

Blue Chip city council  challenger Ray Ellis  has new help  to topple liberal Sherri Lightner in District 1;  this mailing by the California Republican Party.   It features Ellis’ support for Props. A  (contracting reform)  and B  (limiting City pensions).   Ray Ellis has pledged  not to accept a City council pension if elected.   According to this  SD  Union-Tribune  ’Watch Dog”   story,   incumbent council member Lightner may over time collect an estimated  $500,000 in  City retirement benefits if re-elected in 2012.   That’s not a misprint, the U-T foresees a  $500,000 “expected lifetime benefit”.  And you thought that  YOU had a lot at stake in the 2012 election!

The California Republican Party sent this mailer in support of District 7 native  Scott  Sherman, the endorsed  D7  city council candidate.  District 7 is  ”open” since incumbent Marti Emerald  fled relocated to the new 9th District  drawn by the   Kangaroo Court    Redistricting Commission in 2011.   Patrick Henry High School  football veteran Scott Sherman is a successful local businessman.  And yes, Sports Fans, where you went to High School  still matters in District 7 !     Sherman is also endorsed by former D7 Councilwoman  Judy McCarty (1985-2000), Kevin Faulconer, Lorie Zapf, Jerry Sanders, Nathan Fletcher and State legislators Joel Anderson and Brian Jones.

 

For the 12th time, USMC vet and  Purple Heart recipient Supervisor Bill Horn will preside at a local event recognizing National Prayer Day.  It will be held from 12:30 pm to 1:00 at the Flag Pole on the east  side of the County Administraion Center, 1600 Pacific Highway.  Salvation Army musicians will perform accompanying melodies.  In 1952, the United States Congress established an annual day of prayer.  In 1988, the first Thursday of May was chosen as the designated National Day of Prayer.

The theme this year is “One Nation Under God” and the County Board of Supervisors will recognize the National Day of Prayer with a proclamation.

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